Seagate Technology Holdings plc

STX
About the company

Seagate Technology Holdings plc engages in providing data storage solutions in Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and internationally. The company offers External and internal hard drives; external and internal solid-state drives (SSDs); enterprise hard drives and SSDs; data storage systems; network attached storage (NAS) hard drives; video and analytics hard drives; and hyperscale and cloud solution. It offers its products for Healthcare, Media & Entertainment, Surveillance & Security, and telecommunication industry.

Country: SingaporePrice: $921.51Market Cap: $209.0B

Investment snapshot

44%positive consensus
Scored 37d ago

Positive

7

BUY / PASS

Neutral / negative

2 / 6

NEUTRAL / FAIL

Median fair value

$105.00

-88.6% vs price

Models with upside

0 / 16

Positive margin of safety

Strongest signal

7 of 8 pass — Graham objects

Key risk

No clean pass — all 12 investors flag at least one valuation criterion

Framework analysis

VerdictMeaning
BUYPositive purchase signal: the framework's buy requirements are met.
PASSThe company clears the framework's checklist or screen, but the framework does not produce a buy signal. For valuation frameworks this often means margin of safety is missing, insufficient, or unavailable; some screen-only frameworks have no intrinsic-value BUY state.
NEUTRALNeither a positive nor negative conclusion. It does not mean to hold an existing position.
FAILThe company does not clear the framework's requirements.
RankedRanked strategies do not use PASS: selected cohort is BUY, outside the cohort is FAIL, and unranked is NEUTRAL.
Scored from 10-K37d ago
MetricO'Shaughnessy

Systematic Factor Composite

Lynch

GARP

Buffett

Quality Compounder

Pabrai

Dhandho Framework

Akre

Three-Legged Stool

Schloss

Asset-Value Discipline

Neff

Low-P/E Total Return

Sleep

Scale Economies Shared

Templeton

Global Bargain Hunter

Marks

Risk-Aware Value

Munger

Quality Focus

Ackman

Activist Value

Dreman

Contrarian Value

Piotroski

F-Score

Greenblatt

Magic Formula

Graham

Defensive Value

VerdictFAILFAILPASSFAILBUYNEUTRALFAILPASSPASSFAILPASSNEUTRALPASSBUYFAIL · Rank #838 (Top 26.1%)FAIL
Score
Analysis
Intrinsic ValueN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Margin of SafetyN/A-215.8%-165.6%-777.6%-795.3%N/AN/AN/A-1060.9%-1042.3%-417.9%-87.9%-571.7%N/A-907.9%-1585.6%
Data As Of10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-24)10-K (2026-08-24)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)

Where It Passes

  • Efficiency88% pass✓ 10✗ 1▾

    7 of 8 pass — Graham objects

    ROIC (3-5 yr avg)33.4%
    ✓Buffett> 10%
    ROIC - WACC+23.4%
    ✓BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)
    ROIC (high and growing)FY2024: ROIC=32.9%; FY2025: ROIC=32.9%; FY2026: ROIC=56.4%
    ✓AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each
    Reinvestment Rate x ROIC45.2% (RR=80% x ROIC=56.4%)
    ✓AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%
    ROIC (5-year)3/5 years above 12% (latest 56.4%)
    ✓SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years
    Return on Invested Capital56.4%
    ✓Munger> 15%
    Current Assets / Current Liabilities1.67
    ✓Dreman> 1.5
    Current Ratio Change YoY1.38 -> 1.67
    ✓PiotroskiIncreased YoY
    Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY1.13x -> 1.22x
    ✓PiotroskiImproved YoY
    EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)156.9%
    ✓Greenblatt> 25%
    Current Ratio1.67
    ✗Graham>= 2.0
  • Growth63% pass✓ 9✗ 4▾

    5 of 8 pass — Lynch, Neff and Sleep object

    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)3.16
    ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    3-5 Year EPS CAGR21.0%
    ✓Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
    Inventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthInv: 9.1% vs Rev: 34.1%
    ✓LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth
    3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR21.0% over 5 years
    ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
    Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 35.2% -> 45.6%, operating margin 20.8% -> 33.6%
    ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
    5-year Revenue CAGR2.7%
    ✗SleepCAGR > 7%
    5-Year EPS CAGR21.0% CAGR over 5 years
    ✓Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
    Positive Net Income Frequency24/26 years positive
    ✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
    3yr Median Revenue Growth34.1%
    ✓Ackman>= 5%
    Positive EPS Growth Frequency3/5 years with positive EPS growth
    ✓AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years
    EPS Growth Direction$0.36 (2002) -> $13.90 (2026)
    ✓DremanPositive over recent years
    EPS CAGR16.4% CAGR over 24 years
    ✓Dreman> 5% annualized
    EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)2440.7%
    ✓Graham>= 33% growth
  • Cash Flow60% pass✓ 7✗ 5▾

    6 of 10 pass — Oshaughnessy, Pabrai, Ackman +1 more object

    (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization+1.49%; #2272/4487 (top 50.6%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    FCF Positive and Growing$3.1B
    ✓LynchPositive and growing
    Free Cash Flow Proxy$3.2B
    ✓BuffettPositive and growing
    P/E or FCF YieldP/E=66.3x, FCF Yield=1.5%
    ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
    Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures$3.1B
    ✓Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)
    Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency25/25 years positive
    ✓SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years
    FCF Positive22/22 years FCF positive
    ✓MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years
    (OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap1.5%
    ✗Ackman>= 4%
    Price / FCF per Share67.3x
    ✗Ackman<= 25
    Price / (CFO / Shares)56.9x
    ✗Dreman< 8x
    Operating Cash Flow$3.7B
    ✓PiotroskiCFO > 0
    (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=36.84%, ROA=31.93%
    ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA

Where It Falls Short

  • Valuation0% pass✓ 2✗ 24▾

    No clean pass — all 12 investors flag at least one valuation criterion

    Revenue / market capitalization+0.0584; #4426/5203 (top 85.1%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Net income / market capitalization+1.52%; #2685/6251 (top 43.0%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization+1.49%; #2272/4487 (top 50.6%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date+135.22%; #246/6203 (top 4.0%)
    ✓OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)3.16
    ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    P/E or FCF YieldP/E=66.3x, FCF Yield=1.5%
    ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
    Price / Book Value per Share96.44x
    ✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)✗Templeton< 1.5x✗Dreman< 1.2x
    Price / Tangible Book Value per Share220.92x
    ✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)
    Book Value per Share Change+244.7%
    ✓SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)
    Price / Diluted EPS66.3x
    ✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)
    (EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E0.32
    ✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)
    Price / EPS66.3x
    ✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)✗Dreman< 12x
    Price vs. Trailing Low1085% of trailing low ($84.95)
    ✗Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)
    P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/E=66.3x, P/B=96.4x
    ✗MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0
    Discount to Intrinsic Value-571.7% (IV=$137.20 vs Price=$921.51)
    ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
    Valuation ReasonablenessP/E=66.3x, OE Yield=1.4%
    ✗MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%
    Price / FCF per Share67.3x
    ✗Ackman<= 25
    Price / (CFO / Shares)56.9x
    ✗Dreman< 8x
    EBIT / Enterprise Value1.9%
    ✗Greenblatt> 10%
    Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=1.9%, ROC=156.9%
    ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
    Price / 3-yr avg EPS100.7x
    ✗Graham<= 15x
    Price-to-Book Ratio96.4x
    ✗Graham<= 1.5x
    P/E x P/B9,716.4
    ✗Graham<= 22.5
  • Valuation models0% pass✗ 11▾

    STX overvalued: all 11 models price fair value below $921.51 (median $105.00)

    Lynch fair value$291.84
    ✗Lynch-215.8% margin vs $921.51
    Buffett fair value$346.97
    ✗Buffett-165.6% margin vs $921.51
    Pabrai fair value$105.00
    ✗Pabrai-777.6% margin vs $921.51
    Akre fair value$102.93
    ✗Akre-795.3% margin vs $921.51
    Templeton fair value$79.38
    ✗Templeton-1060.9% margin vs $921.51
    Marks fair value$80.67
    ✗Marks-1042.3% margin vs $921.51
    Munger fair value$177.94
    ✗Munger-417.9% margin vs $921.51
    Ackman fair value$490.47
    ✗Ackman-87.9% margin vs $921.51
    Dreman fair value$137.20
    ✗Dreman-571.7% margin vs $921.51
    Greenblatt fair value$91.43
    ✗Greenblatt-907.9% margin vs $921.51
    Graham fair value$54.67
    ✗Graham-1585.6% margin vs $921.51
  • Debt & Leverage18% pass✓ 4✗ 10▾

    9 of 11 flag STX's debt & leverage — Lynch, Buffett, Akre +6 more

    Total Debt / Equity1.65
    ✗Lynch< 0.33
    Cash - Long-term Debt$-1.7B
    ✗LynchPositive preferred
    Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 1.65, IC: 14.6x
    ✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x
    Debt Levels1.65
    ✗AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3✗MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5
    Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity1.65x
    ✗SchlossD/E < 1.00x✗Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✗Dreman< 0.8
    Current Assets / Current Liabilities1.67x
    ✓SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)✓Dreman> 1.5
    Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=14.6x, D/EBITDA=0.8x
    ✓MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x
    Total Debt / Shareholders Equity1.65
    ✗Ackman<= 1.0
    LT Debt / Total Assets Change62.26% -> 33.89%
    ✓PiotroskiDecreased YoY
    LT Debt vs Net Current AssetsLT Debt $3.4B vs NCA $2.1B
    ✗GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets
  • Profitability40% pass✓ 19✗ 12▾

    9 of 15 flag STX's profitability — Oshaughnessy, Lynch, Buffett +6 more

    Net income / market capitalization+1.52%; #2685/6251 (top 43.0%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)3.16
    ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    3-5 Year EPS CAGR21.0%
    ✓Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
    ROE146.9%
    ✓Lynch> 15%
    Net Income Positive (10+ years)24/26 years positive
    ✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years
    ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)119.5%
    ✓Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)
    Operating Margin (10-yr trend)33.6% (latest)
    ✓BuffettStable or rising over 10 years
    Free Cash Flow Proxy$3.2B
    ✓BuffettPositive and growing
    Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)1.02
    ✗BuffettCoV < 0.3
    Retained Earnings Effectiveness
    ✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created
    Margin of SafetyP/E=66.3x, P/B=96.4x
    ✗PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15
    Return on Equity137.1% (3-yr avg)
    ✓AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)
    Positive Diluted-EPS Years10/10 years positive
    ✓Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
    3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR21.0% over 5 years
    ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
    Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 35.2% -> 45.6%, operating margin 20.8% -> 33.6%
    ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
    5-Year EPS CAGR21.0% CAGR over 5 years
    ✓Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
    Operating Margin Trend20.8% (2024) -> 33.6% (2026)
    ✓TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years
    Discount to Intrinsic Value-571.7% (IV=$137.20 vs Price=$921.51)
    ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
    Positive Net Income Frequency24/26 years positive
    ✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
    Operating Income / Revenue33.6%
    ✓Ackman>= 15%
    Net Income / Shareholders Equity146.9%
    ✓Ackman>= 15%
    Pre-Tax Income / Revenue30.3%
    ✓Dreman>= 8%
    Net Income / Shareholders' Equity146.9%
    ✓Dreman> 12%
    Net Income / Total Assets31.93%
    ✓PiotroskiROA > 0
    ROA Change YoY18.31% -> 31.93% (delta: +13.62%)
    ✓PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA
    (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=36.84%, ROA=31.93%
    ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
    Gross Margin Change YoY35.2% -> 45.6%
    ✓PiotroskiImproved YoY
    EBIT / Enterprise Value1.9%
    ✗Greenblatt> 10%
    Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=1.9%, ROC=156.9%
    ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
    Positive EPS (10 years)23/26 years positive
    ✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years
    EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)2440.7%
    ✓Graham>= 33% growth
  • Verdicts50% pass✓ 7✗ 7▾

    Split decision: 6 FAIL · 5 PASS · 2 BUY · 2 NEUTRAL

    Overall verdict
    ✗OshaughnessyFAIL (Rank #744/953 (Top 78.1%))✗LynchFAIL (4/7)✓BuffettPASS (5/9)✗PabraiFAIL (1/3)✓AkreBUY (5/6)•SchlossNEUTRAL (4/7)✗NeffFAIL (3/6)✓SleepPASS (3/6)✓TempletonPASS (4/8)✗MarksFAIL (3/5)✓MungerPASS (2/4)•AckmanNEUTRAL (6/9)✓DremanPASS (6/11)✓PiotroskiBUY (F-Score 8)✗GreenblattRank #838✗GrahamFAIL (3/9)

Business & financials

Company Profile

Industry: Computers
SIC Sector: Industrial Machinery & Computing
Size: Mega Cap($209.0B)
Revenue: $12.2B+34.1% YoY
Net Income: $3.2B+116.7% YoY

Financial Snapshot

Operating Margin33.6%
Return on Equity146.9%
Debt / Equity1.65
Current Ratio1.67
EPS (Diluted)$13.90+105.3% 1y
Buybacks (1y)$176.0M
Shares Retired−6.6% / −7.9% 2y

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Shareholder Return

Fiscal 2026

Issued 6.6% of shares last year, 7.9% issued over two.

Buybacks
$176.0M
Dividends
$634.0M

What drove EPS

A buyback raises earnings per share without the company earning more. This splits each year's change into the two.

FY24
328.5% = 338.5% + −2.3%
FY25
0.0% = 0.0% + 0.0%
FY26
105.3% = 116.7% + −5.3%
Earnings Fewer shares More shares

The two parts do not sum exactly to the total — the difference is the cross-term, plus preferred capital where the company has any. It is left visible rather than distributed into the other two.

Share count is the denominator the filer used for diluted EPS, recovered as net income ÷ EPS — not the balance-sheet count, which is a point-in-time figure and would put the timing difference into this split. Years with a loss are omitted: a smaller share count makes a loss per share larger, so the decomposition inverts.

Company Financials

Annual data (10-K) · Last 5 years

MetricFY 2026FY 2025FY 2024FY 2023FY 2022
Market Cap$209.0B$86.6Best.$20.1Best.$17.1Best.$12.8Best.
Revenue$12.2B↑34%$9.1B$9.1B↑39%$6.6B↓11%$7.4B
Operating Income$4.1B↑117%$1.9B$1.9B↑318%$452.0M↑232%-$342.0M
Net Income$3.2B↑117%$1.5B$1.5B↑339%$335.0M↑163%-$529.0M
EPS (Diluted)$13.90↑105%$6.77$6.77↑328%$1.58↓79%$7.36
Gross Margin45.6%↑30%35.2%35.2%↑50%23.4%↑28%18.3%
Operating Margin33.6%↑62%20.8%20.8%↑201%6.9%↑249%-4.6%
ROE146.9%↑145%-324.3%-324.3%↓1343%-22.5%↓151%44.1%
Total Debt$3.6B↓29%$5.0B$5.0B↓12%$5.7B↑4%$5.5B
Shareholders' Equity$2.2B↑578%-$453.0M-$453.0M↑70%-$1.5B↓24%-$1.2B
Current Ratio1.67↑21%1.381.38↑28%1.08↓4%1.12
Debt / Equity1.65↑115%-11.03-11.03↓190%-3.81↑16%-4.55
Operating Cash Flow$3.7B↑239%$1.1B$1.1B↑18%$918.0M↓3%$942.0M
Free Cash Flow$3.1B↑280%$818.0M$818.0M↑23%$664.0M↑6%$626.0M

Score history

Historical Score Timeline

Industry peers

Industry Peers

Similar companies in Computers

STX vs Peers — Financial Grading

Revenue$12.2BMedian
Net Income$3.2BMedian
ROE146.9%Top 25%
D/E1.65Bottom 25%
Op. Margin33.6%Top 25%
Curr. Ratio1.67Top 25%
CompanyMarket CapPriceRevenueNet IncomeROED/EOp. MarginCurr. RatioGrahamBuffettLynchGreenblattPiotroskiDreman
Apple Inc.AAPL$4.81T$329.40$416.2B$112.0B151.9%1.2332.0%0.891/95/93/71/3F-Score 83/11
CISCO SYSTEMS, INC.CSCO$420.8B$106.74$56.7B$10.2B21.7%0.6020.8%1.004/96/93/70/3F-Score 85/11
Palo Alto Networks IncPANW$317.7B$388.41$9.2B$1.1B14.5%0.0013.5%0.941/93/93/70/3F-Score 54/11
INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORPIBM$207.3B$219.99$67.5B$10.6B32.4%1.88—0.963/92/93/70/3F-Score 64/11
WESTERN DIGITAL CORPWDC$163.5B$453.48$9.5B$1.9B35.6%1.3124.5%1.081/91/92/71/3F-Score 33/11
Fortinet, Inc.FTNT$130.2B$175.96$6.8B$1.9B149.8%0.8130.7%1.172/95/93/71/3F-Score 63/11
Hewlett Packard Enterprise CoHPE$81.6B$61.49$34.3B$57.0M0.2%0.91-1.3%1.011/90/91/70/3F-Score 42/11
NetApp, Inc.NTAP$41.1B$209.18$6.2B$1.3B94.4%1.8426.8%1.443/95/93/71/3F-Score 85/11