HARTFORD INSURANCE GROUP, INC.

HIG
About the company

The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance and financial services to individual and business customers in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates through Business Insurance, Personal Insurance, Property & Casualty Other Operations, Employee Benefits and Hartford Funds.

Country: United StatesPrice: $125.85Market Cap: $34.8B

Investment snapshot

53%positive consensus
Scored 37d ago

Positive

8

BUY / PASS

Neutral / negative

4 / 3

NEUTRAL / FAIL

Median fair value

$170.93

+35.8% vs price

Models with upside

8 / 15

Positive margin of safety

Strongest signal

9 of 10 pass — Lynch objects

Key risk

3 of 4 flag HIG's efficiency — Akre, Sleep and Munger

Framework analysis

VerdictMeaning
BUYPositive purchase signal: the framework's buy requirements are met.
PASSThe company clears the framework's checklist or screen, but the framework does not produce a buy signal. For valuation frameworks this often means margin of safety is missing, insufficient, or unavailable; some screen-only frameworks have no intrinsic-value BUY state.
NEUTRALNeither a positive nor negative conclusion. It does not mean to hold an existing position.
FAILThe company does not clear the framework's requirements.
RankedRanked strategies do not use PASS: selected cohort is BUY, outside the cohort is FAIL, and unranked is NEUTRAL.
Scored from 10-K37d ago
MetricO'Shaughnessy

Systematic Factor Composite

Lynch

GARP

Buffett

Quality Compounder

Pabrai

Dhandho Framework

Akre

Three-Legged Stool

Schloss

Asset-Value Discipline

Neff

Low-P/E Total Return

Sleep

Scale Economies Shared

Templeton

Global Bargain Hunter

Marks

Risk-Aware Value

Munger

Quality Focus

Ackman

Activist Value

Dreman

Contrarian Value

Piotroski

F-Score

Graham

Defensive Value

VerdictFAILFAILPASSNEUTRALFAILNEUTRALPASSPASSNEUTRALNEUTRALBUYBUYBUYBUYPASS
Score
Analysis
Intrinsic ValueN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Margin of SafetyN/A+58.7%+23.6%+28.9%+31.9%N/AN/AN/A-44.7%-59.0%+66.7%+72.0%+20.4%N/A+12.3%
Data As Of10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-24)10-K (2026-08-24)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)

Where It Passes

  • Cash Flow90% pass✓ 11✗ 1▾

    9 of 10 pass — Lynch objects

    (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization+16.54%; #334/4487 (top 7.4%)
    ✓OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    FCF Positive and Growing$5.8B
    ✗LynchPositive and growing
    Free Cash Flow Proxy$3.9B
    ✓BuffettPositive and growing
    P/E or FCF YieldP/E=9.4x, FCF Yield=16.5%
    ✓PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
    Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures$5.8B
    ✓Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)
    Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency24/24 years positive
    ✓SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years
    FCF Positive14/14 years FCF positive
    ✓MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years
    (OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap16.5%
    ✓Ackman>= 4%
    Price / FCF per Share6.0x
    ✓Ackman<= 25
    Price / (CFO / Shares)5.9x
    ✓Dreman< 8x
    Operating Cash Flow$5.9B
    ✓PiotroskiCFO > 0
    (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=6.89%, ROA=4.46%
    ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
  • Debt & Leverage80% pass✓ 10✗ 2▾

    8 of 10 pass — Lynch and Schloss object

    Total Debt / Equity0.23
    ✓Lynch< 0.33
    Cash - Long-term Debt$-4.2B
    ✗LynchPositive preferred
    Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 0.23, IC: 24.9x
    ✓BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x
    Debt Levels0.23
    ✓AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3✓MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5
    Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity0.23x
    ✓SchlossD/E < 1.00x✓Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✓Dreman< 0.8
    Current Assets / Current Liabilities
    ✗SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)
    Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=24.9x, D/EBITDA=0.8x
    ✓MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x
    Total Debt / Shareholders Equity0.23
    ✓Ackman<= 1.0
    LT Debt / Total Assets Change5.40% -> 5.08%
    ✓PiotroskiDecreased YoY
  • Valuation models80% pass✓ 8✗ 2▾

    Models split on HIG at $125.85 — fair values range $79.16–$449.55

    Lynch fair value$304.38
    ✓Lynch+58.7% margin vs $125.85
    Buffett fair value$164.78
    ✓Buffett+23.6% margin vs $125.85
    Pabrai fair value$177.08
    ✓Pabrai+28.9% margin vs $125.85
    Akre fair value$184.70
    ✓Akre+31.9% margin vs $125.85
    Templeton fair value$86.96
    ✗Templeton-44.7% margin vs $125.85
    Marks fair value$79.16
    ✗Marks-59.0% margin vs $125.85
    Munger fair value$378.39
    ✓Munger+66.7% margin vs $125.85
    Ackman fair value$449.55
    ✓Ackman+72.0% margin vs $125.85
    Dreman fair value$158.20
    ✓Dreman+20.4% margin vs $125.85
    Graham fair value$143.46
    ✓Graham+12.3% margin vs $125.85
  • Verdicts73% pass✓ 8✗ 3▾

    Split decision: 4 PASS · 4 NEUTRAL · 4 BUY · 3 FAIL

    Overall verdict
    ✗OshaughnessyFAIL (Rank #212/953 (Top 22.2%))✗LynchFAIL (4/6)✓BuffettPASS (3/7)•PabraiNEUTRAL (2/3)✗AkreFAIL (2/6)•SchlossNEUTRAL (4/7)✓NeffPASS (5/6)✓SleepPASS (3/6)•TempletonNEUTRAL (6/8)•MarksNEUTRAL (5/5)✓MungerBUY (3/4)✓AckmanBUY (8/9)✓DremanBUY (8/10)✓PiotroskiBUY (F-Score 7)✓GrahamPASS (4/7)
  • Growth63% pass✓ 8✗ 4▾

    5 of 8 pass — Neff, Sleep and Graham object

    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)0.41
    ✓Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    3-5 Year EPS CAGR22.9%
    ✓Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
    3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR22.9% over 5 years
    ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
    Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trend
    ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
    5-year Revenue CAGR6.7%
    ✗SleepCAGR > 7%
    5-Year EPS CAGR22.9% CAGR over 5 years
    ✓Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
    Positive Net Income Frequency21/25 years positive
    ✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
    3yr Median Revenue Growth8.2%
    ✓Ackman>= 5%
    Positive EPS Growth Frequency4/5 years with positive EPS growth
    ✓AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years
    EPS Growth Direction$1.93 (2004) -> $13.32 (2025)
    ✓DremanPositive over recent years
    EPS CAGR9.6% CAGR over 21 years
    ✓Dreman> 5% annualized
    EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)
    ✗Graham>= 33% growth
  • Valuation55% pass✓ 17✗ 7▾

    6 of 11 pass — Oshaughnessy, Schloss, Templeton +2 more object

    Revenue / market capitalization+0.8155; #1876/5203 (top 36.1%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Net income / market capitalization+11.03%; #517/6251 (top 8.3%)
    ✓OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization+16.54%; #334/4487 (top 7.4%)
    ✓OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date-6.94%; #3695/6203 (top 59.6%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)0.41
    ✓Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    P/E or FCF YieldP/E=9.4x, FCF Yield=16.5%
    ✓PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
    Price / Book Value per Share1.83x
    ✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)✗Templeton< 1.5x✗Dreman< 1.2x
    Price / Tangible Book Value per Share2.15x
    ✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)
    Book Value per Share Change+32.9%
    ✓SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)
    Price / Diluted EPS9.4x
    ✓NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)
    (EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E2.60
    ✓Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)
    Price / EPS9.4x
    ✓Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)✓Dreman< 12x
    Price vs. Trailing Low113% of trailing low ($111.55)
    ✓Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)
    P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/E=9.4x, P/B=1.8x
    ✓MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0
    Discount to Intrinsic Value20.4% (IV=$158.20 vs Price=$125.85)
    ✓Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
    Valuation ReasonablenessP/E=9.4x, OE Yield=11.1%
    ✓MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%
    Price / FCF per Share6.0x
    ✓Ackman<= 25
    Price / (CFO / Shares)5.9x
    ✓Dreman< 8x
    Price / 3-yr avg EPS11.9x
    ✓Graham<= 15x
    Price-to-Book Ratio1.8x
    ✗Graham<= 1.5x
    P/E x P/B21.90
    ✓Graham<= 22.5

Where It Falls Short

  • Efficiency25% pass✓ 1✗ 4▾

    3 of 4 flag HIG's efficiency — Akre, Sleep and Munger

    ROIC (high and growing)FY2023: ROIC=unavailable; FY2024: ROIC=unavailable; FY2025: ROIC=unavailable
    ✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each
    Reinvestment Rate x ROIC
    ✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%
    ROIC (5-year)
    ✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years
    Return on Invested Capital
    ✗Munger> 15%
    Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.33x -> 0.33x
    ✓PiotroskiImproved YoY
  • Profitability50% pass✓ 17✗ 11▾

    7 of 14 pass — Buffett, Akre, Neff +4 more object

    Net income / market capitalization+11.03%; #517/6251 (top 8.3%)
    ✓OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)0.41
    ✓Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    3-5 Year EPS CAGR22.9%
    ✓Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
    ROE20.2%
    ✓Lynch> 15%
    Net Income Positive (10+ years)21/25 years positive
    ✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years
    ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)16.4%
    ✓Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)
    Operating Margin (10-yr trend)
    ✗BuffettStable or rising over 10 years
    Free Cash Flow Proxy$3.9B
    ✓BuffettPositive and growing
    Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)1.85
    ✗BuffettCoV < 0.3
    Retained Earnings Effectiveness
    ✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created
    Margin of SafetyP/E=9.4x, P/B=1.8x
    ✓PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15
    Return on Equity18.5% (3-yr avg)
    ✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)
    Positive Diluted-EPS Years9/10 years positive
    ✓Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
    3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR22.9% over 5 years
    ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
    Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trend
    ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
    5-Year EPS CAGR22.9% CAGR over 5 years
    ✓Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
    Operating Margin Trend
    ✗TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years
    Discount to Intrinsic Value20.4% (IV=$158.20 vs Price=$125.85)
    ✓Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
    Positive Net Income Frequency21/25 years positive
    ✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
    Operating Income / Revenue
    ✗Ackman>= 15%
    Net Income / Shareholders Equity20.2%
    ✓Ackman>= 15%
    Pre-Tax Income / Revenue16.8%
    ✓Dreman>= 8%
    Net Income / Shareholders' Equity20.2%
    ✓Dreman> 12%
    Net Income / Total Assets4.46%
    ✓PiotroskiROA > 0
    ROA Change YoY3.84% -> 4.46% (delta: +0.62%)
    ✓PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA
    (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=6.89%, ROA=4.46%
    ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
    Positive EPS (10 years)18/25 years positive
    ✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years
    EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)
    ✗Graham>= 33% growth

Business & financials

Company Profile

Industry: Insurance
SIC Sector: Insurance Carriers
Size: Large Cap($34.8B)
Revenue: $28.4B+6.9% YoY
Net Income: $3.8B+23.3% YoY

Financial Snapshot

Operating Margin--
Return on Equity20.2%
Debt / Equity0.23
Current Ratio--
EPS (Diluted)$13.32+28.7% 1y
Buybacks (1y)$1.6B
Buybacks (2y)$3.1B
Shares Retired3.5% / 7.2% 2y

Similar Companies

UNHUNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC
$336.5B
PGRPROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/
$122.2B
CILJFCHINA LIFE INSURANCE CO LTD
$107.4B
MRSHMARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES, INC.
$81.3B
Sector-adjusted criteria: Insurer

Insurers file unclassified balance sheets with no inventory or current accounts, so those criteria are omitted rather than failed for missing data. Return-on-invested-capital tests are omitted too: float funds the balance sheet but never appears in invested capital, and the portfolio it is invested in would be subtracted as spare cash. Debt tests are kept — an insurer’s borrowings are real leverage on top of underwriting.

Shareholder Return

Fiscal 2025

Retired 3.5% of shares last year, 7.2% over two.

Buybacks
$1.6B
Dividends
$592.0M

What drove EPS

A buyback raises earnings per share without the company earning more. This splits each year's change into the two.

FY22
−17.8% = −23.3% + 7.1%
FY23
46.5% = 37.7% + 6.4%
FY24
29.9% = 24.2% + 4.5%
FY25
28.7% = 23.3% + 4.4%
Earnings Fewer shares More shares

The two parts do not sum exactly to the total — the difference is the cross-term, plus preferred capital where the company has any. It is left visible rather than distributed into the other two.

Share count is the denominator the filer used for diluted EPS, recovered as net income ÷ EPS — not the balance-sheet count, which is a point-in-time figure and would put the timing difference into this split. Years with a loss are omitted: a smaller share count makes a loss per share larger, so the decomposition inverts.

Company Financials

Annual data (10-K) · Last 5 years

MetricFY 2025FY 2024FY 2023FY 2022FY 2021
Market Cap$34.8B$32.0Best.$24.8Best.$22.8Best.$21.9Best.
Revenue$28.4B↑7%$26.5B↑8%$24.5B↑10%$22.4B$22.4B
Operating Income----------
Net Income$3.8B↑23%$3.1B↑24%$2.5B↑38%$1.8B↓23%$2.4B
EPS (Diluted)$13.32↑29%$10.35↑30%$7.97↑47%$5.44↓18%$6.62
Gross Margin—————
Operating Margin—————
ROE20.2%↑7%18.9%↑16%16.3%↑23%13.3%13.3%
Total Debt$4.4B$4.4B$4.4B$4.4B↓12%$4.9B
Shareholders' Equity$19.0B↑15%$16.4B↑7%$15.3B↑12%$13.7B↓23%$17.8B
Current Ratio—————
Debt / Equity0.23↓13%0.27↓7%0.28↓11%0.32↑15%0.28
Operating Cash Flow$5.9B$5.9B↑40%$4.2B↑5%$4.0B↓2%$4.1B
Free Cash Flow$5.8B$5.8B↑44%$4.0B↑4%$3.8B↓3%$4.0B

Score history

Historical Score Timeline

Industry peers

Industry Peers

Similar companies in Insurance

HIG vs Peers — Financial Grading

Revenue$28.4BMedian
Net Income$3.8BMedian
ROE20.2%Median
D/E0.23Top 25%
Op. Margin—
Curr. Ratio—
CompanyMarket CapPriceRevenueNet IncomeROED/EOp. MarginCurr. RatioGrahamBuffettLynchPiotroskiDreman
UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INCUNH$336.5B$374.94$447.6B$12.1B12.0%0.784.2%0.793/74/70/6F-Score 63/10
PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/PGR$122.2B$210.52$87.7B$11.3B37.3%0.23——2/72/75/6F-Score 68/10
CHINA LIFE INSURANCE CO LTDCILJF$107.4B$3.80——————3/71/73/6F-Score 55/10
MARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES, INC.MRSH$81.3B$170.42$27.0B$4.2B27.2%1.2823.1%1.103/73/73/6F-Score 65/10
Aon plcAON$58.5B$275.90$17.2B$3.7B39.5%1.6325.3%1.112/74/73/6F-Score 63/10
AFLAC INCAFL$57.0B$113.66$17.2B$3.6B12.4%0.29——3/74/72/6F-Score 44/10
HUMANA INCHUM$46.5B$386.87$129.7B$1.2B6.7%0.702.1%2.003/72/70/6F-Score 44/10
SUN LIFE FINANCIAL INCSLF$44.0B$79.06$30.6B$2.6B14.5%0.33——3/73/72/6F-Score 65/10