PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/

PGR

The Progressive Corporation operates as an insurance company in the United States. It writes insurance for personal autos and special lines products, including motorcycles, RVs, and watercraft; and personal residential property insurance for homeowners and renters.

Country: United StatesPrice: $209.60Market Cap: $121.9B

Company Profile

Industry: Insurance
SIC Sector: Insurance Carriers
Size: Large Cap($121.9B)
Revenue: $87.7B+16.3% YoY
Net Income: $11.3B+33.3% YoY

Financial Snapshot

Operating Margin--
Return on Equity37.3%
Debt / Equity0.00
Current Ratio--
EPS (Diluted)$19.23+33.5%
Shares Retired0.0% / −0.1% 2y

Similar Companies

UNHUNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC
$360.6B
ELVElevance Health, Inc.
$86.8B
CICigna Group
$74.7B
AEFCAEGON LTD.
$28.5B

Shareholder Return

Fiscal 2025

Retired 0.0% of shares last year, 0.1% issued over two.

Buybacks
—
Dividends
$2.9B

What drove EPS

A buyback raises earnings per share without the company earning more. This splits each year's change into the two.

FY22
−79.2% = −78.5% + −3.2%
FY23
457.6% = 440.6% + 3.2%
FY24
118.8% = 117.3% + 0.7%
FY25
33.5% = 33.3% + 0.1%
Earnings Fewer shares More shares

The two parts do not sum exactly to the total — the difference is the cross-term, plus preferred capital where the company has any. It is left visible rather than distributed into the other two.

Share count is the denominator the filer used for diluted EPS, recovered as net income ÷ EPS — not the balance-sheet count, which is a point-in-time figure and would put the timing difference into this split. Years with a loss are omitted: a smaller share count makes a loss per share larger, so the decomposition inverts.

Company Financials

Annual data (10-K) · Last 5 years

MetricFY 2025FY 2024FY 2023FY 2022FY 2021
Market Cap$121.9B$133.0Best.$95.5Best.$72.8Best.$57.8Best.
Revenue$87.7B↑16%$75.4B↑21%$62.1B↑25%$49.6B↑4%$47.7B
Operating Income----------
Net Income$11.3B↑33%$8.5B↑117%$3.9B↑441%$722.0M↓78%$3.4B
EPS (Diluted)$19.23↑34%$14.40↑119%$6.58↑458%$1.18↓79%$5.66
Gross Margin—————
Operating Margin—————
ROE37.3%↑13%33.1%↑72%19.2%↑324%4.5%↓75%18.4%
Total Debt$0$0$0$0$0
Shareholders' Equity$30.3B↑18%$25.6B↑26%$20.3B↑28%$15.9B↓13%$18.2B
Current Ratio—————
Debt / Equity0.000.000.000.000.00
Operating Cash Flow$17.5B↑16%$15.1B↑42%$10.6B↑55%$6.8B↓12%$7.8B
Free Cash Flow$17.2B↑16%$14.8B↑43%$10.4B↑58%$6.6B↓13%$7.5B
Scored from 10-K1d ago
MetricMarks

Risk-Aware Value

Akre

Three-Legged Stool

Druckenmiller

Macro-Enhanced Growth

Spier

Value Checklist

Pabrai

Dhandho Framework

Munger

Quality Focus

Ackman

Activist Value

Piotroski

F-Score

Greenblatt

Magic Formula

Lynch

GARP

Buffett

Quality Compounder

Graham

Defensive Value

VerdictHOLDPASSBUYBUYBUYBUYBUYHOLDNot rankedBUYFAILFAIL
Score
Analysis
Intrinsic ValueN/A
Margin of Safety-93.2%-5.7%+74.5%+17.9%+9.4%+59.2%+72.9%-451.6%N/A+26.2%+40.2%-63.5%
Data As Of10-K (2026-08-15)10-K (2026-08-15)10-K (2026-08-15)10-K (2026-08-15)10-K (2026-08-15)10-K (2026-08-15)10-K (2026-08-15)10-K (2026-08-15)10-K (2026-08-15)10-K (2026-08-15)10-K (2026-08-15)10-K (2026-08-15)

Where They Agree

  • Cash Flow

    All 6 investors pass PGR's cash flow

    FCF Positive18/18 years FCF positive
    ✓MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years
    P/E or FCF YieldP/E=10.3x, FCF Yield=14.8%
    ✓PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
    (OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap14.8%
    ✓Ackman>= 4%
    Price / FCF per Share6.8x
    ✓Ackman<= 25
    Show 4 more metrics ▾
    Operating Cash Flow$17.5B
    ✓PiotroskiCFO > 0
    (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=14.26%, ROA=9.19%
    ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
    FCF Positive and Growing$17.2B
    ✓LynchPositive and growing
    Free Cash Flow Proxy$11.3B
    ✓BuffettPositive and growing
  • Efficiency

    All 6 investors flag PGR's efficiency

    ROIC (high and growing)
    ✗AkreROIC > 15% for 3+ years
    Reinvestment Rate x ROIC
    ✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%
    Return on Invested Capital
    ✗Munger> 15%
    Current Ratio Change YoY
    ✗PiotroskiIncreased YoY
    Show 5 more metrics ▾
    Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.71x -> 0.71x
    ✗PiotroskiImproved YoY
    EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)
    ✗Greenblatt> 25%
    ROIC (3-5 yr avg)
    ✗Buffett> 10%
    ROIC - WACC
    ✗BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)
    Current Ratio
    ✗Graham>= 2.0

Where They Disagree

  • Profitability

    3 of 11 pass — Marks, Druckenmiller, Spier +5 more object

    Margin of SafetyP/E=10.3x, P/B=3.8x
    ✗SpierP/E < 15 AND P/B < 2.0✓PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15
    Discount to Intrinsic Value1.4% (IV=$201.05 vs Price=$198.24)
    ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
    Positive Net Income Frequency27/28 years positive
    ✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
    Return on Equity29.9% (3-yr avg)
    ✓AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)
    Show 19 more metrics ▾
    EPS Growth AccelerationLatest: 33.5%, Prior: 118.8%
    ✗DruckenmillerAccelerating EPS growth
    Operating Income / Revenue
    ✗Ackman>= 15%
    Net Income / Shareholders Equity37.3%
    ✓Ackman>= 15%
    Net Income / Total Assets9.19%
    ✓PiotroskiROA > 0
    ROA Change YoY8.02% -> 9.19% (delta: +1.17%)
    ✓PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA
    (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=14.26%, ROA=9.19%
    ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
    Gross Margin Change YoY
    ✗PiotroskiImproved YoY
    EBIT / Enterprise Value
    ✗Greenblatt> 10%
    Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=None, ROC=None
    ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
    3-5 Year EPS CAGR14.8%
    ✓Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
    ROE37.3%
    ✓Lynch> 15%
    Net Income Positive (10+ years)27/28 years positive
    ✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years
    ROE (5-yr avg)22.5%
    ✓Buffett> 15% (5-yr avg)
    Operating Margin (10-yr trend)3.7% (latest)
    ✗BuffettStable or rising over 10 years
    Free Cash Flow Proxy$11.3B
    ✓BuffettPositive and growing
    Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)1.06
    ✗BuffettCoV < 0.3
    Retained Earnings Effectiveness2.80x
    ✓Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created
    Positive EPS (10 years)17/28 years positive
    ✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years
    EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)
    ✗Graham>= 33% growth
  • Debt & Leverage

    4 of 8 pass — Marks, Lynch, Buffett +1 more object

    Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDA
    ✗MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x
    Debt Levels0
    ✓AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3✓MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5
    Total Debt / Shareholders Equity0
    ✓Ackman<= 1.0
    LT Debt / Total Assets Change0.00% -> 0.00%
    ✓PiotroskiDecreased YoY
    Show 4 more metrics ▾
    Total Debt / Equity0
    ✓Lynch< 0.33
    Cash - Long-term Debt
    ✗LynchPositive preferred
    Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 0.00, IC: N/A
    ✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x
    LT Debt vs Net Current Assets
    ✗GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets
  • Valuation

    5 of 9 pass — Marks, Spier, Greenblatt +1 more object

    P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/E=10.3x, P/B=3.8x
    ✓MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0
    Discount to Intrinsic Value1.4% (IV=$201.05 vs Price=$198.24)
    ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
    Price vs. 200-day MAQualitative
    ✓DruckenmillerPrice above 200-day moving average
    Margin of SafetyP/E=10.3x, P/B=3.8x
    ✗SpierP/E < 15 AND P/B < 2.0
    Show 9 more metrics ▾
    P/E or FCF YieldP/E=10.3x, FCF Yield=14.8%
    ✓PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
    Valuation ReasonablenessP/E=10.3x, OE Yield=9.7%
    ✓MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%
    Price / FCF per Share6.8x
    ✓Ackman<= 25
    EBIT / Enterprise Value
    ✗Greenblatt> 10%
    Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=None, ROC=None
    ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
    P/E / EPS Growth Rate0.70
    ✓Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    Price / 3-yr avg EPS14.8x
    ✓Graham<= 15x
    Price-to-Book Ratio3.8x
    ✗Graham<= 1.5x
    P/E x P/B56.70
    ✗Graham<= 22.5
  • Growth

    3 of 5 pass — Druckenmiller and Graham object

    Positive Net Income Frequency27/28 years positive
    ✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
    EPS Growth AccelerationLatest: 33.5%, Prior: 118.8%
    ✗DruckenmillerAccelerating EPS growth
    Revenue Growth RateLatest: 16.3%, Prior: 21.4%
    ✗DruckenmillerRevenue growth accelerating
    3yr Median Revenue Growth21.4%
    ✓Ackman>= 5%
    Show 5 more metrics ▾
    Positive EPS Growth Frequency3/5 years with positive EPS growth
    ✓AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years
    P/E / EPS Growth Rate0.70
    ✓Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    3-5 Year EPS CAGR14.8%
    ✓Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
    Inventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthN/A (no inventory)
    ✓LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth
    EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)
    ✗Graham>= 33% growth
  • Verdicts

    Split decision: 6 BUY · 2 HOLD · 2 FAIL · 1 PASS

    Overall verdict
    •MarksHOLD (6/8)✓AkrePASS (4/7)✓DruckenmillerBUY (5/7)✓SpierBUY (7/8)✓PabraiBUY (7/8)✓MungerBUY (6/7)✓AckmanBUY (8/9)•PiotroskiHOLD (F-Score 6)•GreenblattNot ranked✓LynchBUY (PEG 0.7)✗BuffettFAIL (3/9)✗GrahamFAIL (3/9)
  • Valuation models

    Models split on PGR at $209.60 — fair values range $38.00–$821.86

    Marks fair value$108.49
    ✗Marks-93.2% margin vs $209.60
    Akre fair value$198.22
    ✗Akre-5.7% margin vs $209.60
    Druckenmiller fair value$821.86
    ✓Druckenmiller+74.5% margin vs $209.60
    Spier fair value$255.40
    ✓Spier+17.9% margin vs $209.60
    Show 7 more metrics ▾
    Pabrai fair value$231.41
    ✓Pabrai+9.4% margin vs $209.60
    Munger fair value$514.12
    ✓Munger+59.2% margin vs $209.60
    Ackman fair value$772.15
    ✓Ackman+72.9% margin vs $209.60
    Piotroski fair value$38.00
    ✗Piotroski-451.6% margin vs $209.60
    Lynch fair value$283.89
    ✓Lynch+26.2% margin vs $209.60
    Buffett fair value$350.21
    ✓Buffett+40.2% margin vs $209.60
    Graham fair value$128.22
    ✗Graham-63.5% margin vs $209.60

Historical Score Timeline

Industry Peers

Similar companies in Insurance

PGR vs Peers — Financial Grading

Revenue$87.7BMedian
Net Income$11.3BTop 25%
ROE37.3%Top 25%
D/E0.00Top 25%
Op. Margin—
Curr. Ratio—
CompanyMarket CapPriceRevenueNet IncomeROED/EOp. MarginCurr. RatioGrahamBuffettLynchGreenblattPiotroski
UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INCUNH$360.6B$401.73$447.6B$12.1B12.0%0.784.2%0.793/96/91/70/3F-Score 7
Elevance Health, Inc.ELV$86.8B$400.32$199.1B$5.7B12.9%0.753.6%1.545/95/92/71/3F-Score 6
Cigna GroupCI$74.7B$282.56$274.9B$6.0B14.3%0.013.3%0.851/94/93/71/3F-Score 8
AEGON LTD.AEFC$28.5B$18.36—$1.1B10.4%———0/91/91/70/3F-Score 5
PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL GROUP INCPFG$24.4B$113.98$15.6B$1.2B10.0%0.33——2/93/93/70/3F-Score 5
MARKEL GROUP INC.MKL$22.9B$1847.24$15.5B$2.1B11.3%0.2320.6%—4/96/95/71/3F-Score 5
Fidelity National Financial, Inc.FNF$13.3B$49.47$14.4B$602.0M8.1%0.59——2/92/92/70/3F-Score 5
Enact Holdings, Inc.ACT$6.9B$49.94$1.2B$674.2M12.6%0.14——5/91/94/70/3F-Score 5