PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/

PGR
About the company

The Progressive Corporation operates as an insurance company in the United States. It writes insurance for personal autos and special lines products, including motorcycles, RVs, and watercraft; and personal residential property insurance for homeowners and renters.

Country: United StatesPrice: $210.52Market Cap: $122.2B

Investment snapshot

47%positive consensus
Scored 37d ago

Positive

7

BUY / PASS

Neutral / negative

5 / 3

NEUTRAL / FAIL

Median fair value

$242.47

+15.2% vs price

Models with upside

4 / 15

Positive margin of safety

Strongest signal

9 of 10 pass — Buffett objects

Key risk

Split decision: 5 NEUTRAL · 5 BUY · 3 FAIL · 2 PASS

Framework analysis

VerdictMeaning
BUYPositive purchase signal: the framework's buy requirements are met.
PASSThe company clears the framework's checklist or screen, but the framework does not produce a buy signal. For valuation frameworks this often means margin of safety is missing, insufficient, or unavailable; some screen-only frameworks have no intrinsic-value BUY state.
NEUTRALNeither a positive nor negative conclusion. It does not mean to hold an existing position.
FAILThe company does not clear the framework's requirements.
RankedRanked strategies do not use PASS: selected cohort is BUY, outside the cohort is FAIL, and unranked is NEUTRAL.
Scored from 10-K37d ago
MetricO'Shaughnessy

Systematic Factor Composite

Munger

Quality Focus

Marks

Risk-Aware Value

Buffett

Quality Compounder

Lynch

GARP

Pabrai

Dhandho Framework

Akre

Three-Legged Stool

Schloss

Asset-Value Discipline

Neff

Low-P/E Total Return

Sleep

Scale Economies Shared

Templeton

Global Bargain Hunter

Ackman

Activist Value

Dreman

Contrarian Value

Piotroski

F-Score

Graham

Defensive Value

VerdictNEUTRALBUYFAILFAILBUYNEUTRALPASSNEUTRALPASSNEUTRALNEUTRALBUYBUYBUYFAIL
Score
Analysis
Intrinsic ValueN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Margin of SafetyN/A+69.9%-94.0%N/A+25.8%N/A+50.7%N/AN/AN/A-89.6%+80.0%-4.7%N/A-40.7%
Data As Of10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-24)10-K (2026-08-24)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)

Where It Passes

  • Cash Flow90% pass✓ 11✗ 1▾

    9 of 10 pass — Buffett objects

    (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization+14.08%; #406/4487 (top 9.0%)
    ✓OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    FCF Positive18/18 years FCF positive
    ✓MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years
    Free Cash Flow Proxy
    ✗BuffettPositive and growing
    FCF Positive and Growing$17.2B
    ✓LynchPositive and growing
    P/E or FCF YieldP/E=10.9x, FCF Yield=14.1%
    ✓PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
    Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures$17.2B
    ✓Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)
    Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency22/22 years positive
    ✓SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years
    (OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap13.9%
    ✓Ackman>= 4%
    Price / FCF per Share7.2x
    ✓Ackman<= 25
    Price / (CFO / Shares)7.0x
    ✓Dreman< 8x
    Operating Cash Flow$17.5B
    ✓PiotroskiCFO > 0
    (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=14.26%, ROA=9.19%
    ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
  • Growth75% pass✓ 10✗ 2▾

    6 of 8 pass — Sleep and Graham object

    Positive Net Income Frequency27/28 years positive
    ✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)0.74
    ✓Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    3-5 Year EPS CAGR14.8%
    ✓Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
    3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR14.8% over 5 years
    ✓Neff7%-20% annualized
    Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trend
    ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
    5-year Revenue CAGR15.5%
    ✓SleepCAGR > 7%
    5-Year EPS CAGR14.8% CAGR over 5 years
    ✓Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
    3yr Median Revenue Growth21.4%
    ✓Ackman>= 5%
    Positive EPS Growth Frequency3/5 years with positive EPS growth
    ✓AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years
    EPS Growth Direction$-0.10 (2008) -> $19.23 (2025)
    ✓DremanPositive over recent years
    EPS CAGR17.0% CAGR over 16 years
    ✓Dreman> 5% annualized
    EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)
    ✗Graham>= 33% growth
  • Debt & Leverage70% pass✓ 9✗ 3▾

    7 of 10 pass — Marks, Lynch and Schloss object

    Debt Levels0.23
    ✓MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✓AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3
    Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=52.2x, D/EBITDA=N/A (D&A unavailable)
    ✗MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x
    Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 0.23, IC: 52.2x
    ✓BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x
    Total Debt / Equity0.23
    ✓Lynch< 0.33
    Cash - Long-term Debt
    ✗LynchPositive preferred
    Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity0.23x
    ✓SchlossD/E < 1.00x✓Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✓Dreman< 0.8
    Current Assets / Current Liabilities
    ✗SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)
    Total Debt / Shareholders Equity0.23
    ✓Ackman<= 1.0
    LT Debt / Total Assets Change0.00% -> 0.00%
    ✓PiotroskiDecreased YoY
  • Verdicts70% pass✓ 7✗ 3▾

    Split decision: 5 NEUTRAL · 5 BUY · 3 FAIL · 2 PASS

    Overall verdict
    •OshaughnessyNEUTRAL (Not ranked)✓MungerBUY (3/4)✗MarksFAIL (3/5)✗BuffettFAIL (2/7)✓LynchBUY (5/6)•PabraiNEUTRAL (2/3)✓AkrePASS (3/6)•SchlossNEUTRAL (4/7)✓NeffPASS (6/6)•SleepNEUTRAL (4/6)•TempletonNEUTRAL (6/8)✓AckmanBUY (8/9)✓DremanBUY (8/10)✓PiotroskiBUY (F-Score 6)✗GrahamFAIL (2/7)

Where It Falls Short

  • Efficiency0% pass✗ 5▾

    All 4 investors flag PGR's efficiency

    Return on Invested Capital
    ✗Munger> 15%
    ROIC (high and growing)FY2023: ROIC=unavailable; FY2024: ROIC=unavailable; FY2025: ROIC=unavailable
    ✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each
    Reinvestment Rate x ROIC
    ✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%
    ROIC (5-year)
    ✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years
    Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.71x -> 0.71x
    ✗PiotroskiImproved YoY
  • Valuation45% pass✓ 13✗ 11▾

    6 of 11 flag PGR's valuation — Oshaughnessy, Marks, Schloss +3 more

    Revenue / market capitalization+0.7175; #2018/5203 (top 38.8%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Net income / market capitalization+9.25%; #670/6251 (top 10.7%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization+14.08%; #406/4487 (top 9.0%)
    ✓OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date+6.19%; #2471/6203 (top 39.8%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Valuation ReasonablenessP/E=10.9x
    ✓MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%
    P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/E=10.9x, P/B=4.1x
    ✓MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0
    Discount to Intrinsic Value-4.7% (IV=$201.05 vs Price=$210.52)
    ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)0.74
    ✓Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    P/E or FCF YieldP/E=10.9x, FCF Yield=14.1%
    ✓PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
    Price / Book Value per Share4.07x
    ✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)✗Templeton< 1.5x✗Dreman< 1.2x
    Price / Tangible Book Value per Share4.07x
    ✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)
    Book Value per Share Change+77.8%
    ✓SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)
    Price / Diluted EPS10.9x
    ✓NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)
    (EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E1.56
    ✓Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)
    Price / EPS10.9x
    ✓Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)✓Dreman< 12x
    Price vs. Trailing Low106% of trailing low ($198.24)
    ✓Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)
    Price / FCF per Share7.2x
    ✓Ackman<= 25
    Price / (CFO / Shares)7.0x
    ✓Dreman< 8x
    Price / 3-yr avg EPS15.7x
    ✗Graham<= 15x
    Price-to-Book Ratio4.1x
    ✗Graham<= 1.5x
    P/E x P/B63.90
    ✗Graham<= 22.5
  • Profitability50% pass✓ 16✗ 12▾

    7 of 14 pass — Oshaughnessy, Marks, Buffett +4 more object

    Net income / market capitalization+9.25%; #670/6251 (top 10.7%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Discount to Intrinsic Value-4.7% (IV=$201.05 vs Price=$210.52)
    ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
    Positive Net Income Frequency27/28 years positive
    ✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
    Net Income Positive (10+ years)27/28 years positive
    ✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years
    ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)22.5%
    ✓Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)
    Operating Margin (10-yr trend)3.7% (latest)
    ✗BuffettStable or rising over 10 years
    Free Cash Flow Proxy
    ✗BuffettPositive and growing
    Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)1.06
    ✗BuffettCoV < 0.3
    Retained Earnings Effectiveness
    ✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created
    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)0.74
    ✓Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    3-5 Year EPS CAGR14.8%
    ✓Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
    ROE37.3%
    ✓Lynch> 15%
    Margin of SafetyP/E=10.9x, P/B=4.1x
    ✓PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15
    Return on Equity29.9% (3-yr avg)
    ✓AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)
    Positive Diluted-EPS Years10/10 years positive
    ✓Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
    3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR14.8% over 5 years
    ✓Neff7%-20% annualized
    Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trend
    ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
    5-Year EPS CAGR14.8% CAGR over 5 years
    ✓Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
    Operating Margin Trend
    ✗TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years
    Operating Income / Revenue
    ✗Ackman>= 15%
    Net Income / Shareholders Equity37.3%
    ✓Ackman>= 15%
    Pre-Tax Income / Revenue16.2%
    ✓Dreman>= 8%
    Net Income / Shareholders' Equity37.3%
    ✓Dreman> 12%
    Net Income / Total Assets9.19%
    ✓PiotroskiROA > 0
    ROA Change YoY8.02% -> 9.19% (delta: +1.17%)
    ✓PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA
    (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=14.26%, ROA=9.19%
    ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
    Positive EPS (10 years)17/28 years positive
    ✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years
    EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)
    ✗Graham>= 33% growth
  • Valuation models50% pass✓ 4✗ 4▾

    Models split on PGR at $210.52 — fair values range $108.49–$1051.58

    Munger fair value$700.18
    ✓Munger+69.9% margin vs $210.52
    Marks fair value$108.49
    ✗Marks-94.0% margin vs $210.52
    Lynch fair value$283.89
    ✓Lynch+25.8% margin vs $210.52
    Akre fair value$426.86
    ✓Akre+50.7% margin vs $210.52
    Templeton fair value$111.06
    ✗Templeton-89.6% margin vs $210.52
    Ackman fair value$1051.58
    ✓Ackman+80.0% margin vs $210.52
    Dreman fair value$201.05
    ✗Dreman-4.7% margin vs $210.52
    Graham fair value$149.64
    ✗Graham-40.7% margin vs $210.52

Business & financials

Company Profile

Industry: Insurance
SIC Sector: Insurance Carriers
Size: Large Cap($122.2B)
Revenue: $87.7B+16.3% YoY
Net Income: $11.3B+33.3% YoY

Financial Snapshot

Operating Margin--
Return on Equity37.3%
Debt / Equity0.23
Current Ratio--
EPS (Diluted)$19.23+33.5% 1y
Shares Retired0.0% / −0.1% 2y

Similar Companies

UNHUNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC
$336.5B
CILJFCHINA LIFE INSURANCE CO LTD
$107.4B
MRSHMARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES, INC.
$81.3B
AONAon plc
$58.5B
Sector-adjusted criteria: Insurer

Insurers file unclassified balance sheets with no inventory or current accounts, so those criteria are omitted rather than failed for missing data. Return-on-invested-capital tests are omitted too: float funds the balance sheet but never appears in invested capital, and the portfolio it is invested in would be subtracted as spare cash. Debt tests are kept — an insurer’s borrowings are real leverage on top of underwriting.

Shareholder Return

Fiscal 2025

Retired 0.0% of shares last year, 0.1% issued over two.

Buybacks
—
Dividends
$2.9B

What drove EPS

A buyback raises earnings per share without the company earning more. This splits each year's change into the two.

FY22
−79.2% = −78.5% + −3.2%
FY23
457.6% = 440.6% + 3.2%
FY24
118.8% = 117.3% + 0.7%
FY25
33.5% = 33.3% + 0.1%
Earnings Fewer shares More shares

The two parts do not sum exactly to the total — the difference is the cross-term, plus preferred capital where the company has any. It is left visible rather than distributed into the other two.

Share count is the denominator the filer used for diluted EPS, recovered as net income ÷ EPS — not the balance-sheet count, which is a point-in-time figure and would put the timing difference into this split. Years with a loss are omitted: a smaller share count makes a loss per share larger, so the decomposition inverts.

Company Financials

Annual data (10-K) · Last 5 years

MetricFY 2025FY 2024FY 2023FY 2022FY 2021
Market Cap$122.2B$133.0Best.$95.5Best.$72.8Best.$57.8Best.
Revenue$87.7B↑16%$75.4B↑21%$62.1B↑25%$49.6B↑4%$47.7B
Operating Income----------
Net Income$11.3B↑33%$8.5B↑117%$3.9B↑441%$722.0M↓78%$3.4B
EPS (Diluted)$19.23↑34%$14.40↑119%$6.58↑458%$1.18↓79%$5.66
Gross Margin—————
Operating Margin—————
ROE37.3%↑13%33.1%↑72%19.2%↑324%4.5%↓75%18.4%
Total Debt$6.9B$6.9B$6.9B↑8%$6.4B↑30%$4.9B
Shareholders' Equity$30.3B↑18%$25.6B↑26%$20.3B↑28%$15.9B↓13%$18.2B
Current Ratio—————
Debt / Equity0.23↓16%0.27↓21%0.34↓15%0.40↑50%0.27
Operating Cash Flow$17.5B↑16%$15.1B↑42%$10.6B↑55%$6.8B↓12%$7.8B
Free Cash Flow$17.2B↑16%$14.8B↑43%$10.4B↑58%$6.6B↓13%$7.5B

Score history

Historical Score Timeline

Industry peers

Industry Peers

Similar companies in Insurance

PGR vs Peers — Financial Grading

Revenue$87.7BMedian
Net Income$11.3BTop 25%
ROE37.3%Top 25%
D/E0.23Top 25%
Op. Margin—
Curr. Ratio—
CompanyMarket CapPriceRevenueNet IncomeROED/EOp. MarginCurr. RatioGrahamBuffettLynchPiotroskiDreman
UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INCUNH$336.5B$374.94$447.6B$12.1B12.0%0.784.2%0.793/74/70/6F-Score 63/10
CHINA LIFE INSURANCE CO LTDCILJF$107.4B$3.80——————3/71/73/6F-Score 55/10
MARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES, INC.MRSH$81.3B$170.42$27.0B$4.2B27.2%1.2823.1%1.103/73/73/6F-Score 65/10
Aon plcAON$58.5B$275.90$17.2B$3.7B39.5%1.6325.3%1.112/74/73/6F-Score 63/10
AFLAC INCAFL$57.0B$113.66$17.2B$3.6B12.4%0.29——3/74/72/6F-Score 44/10
HUMANA INCHUM$46.5B$386.87$129.7B$1.2B6.7%0.702.1%2.003/72/70/6F-Score 44/10
SUN LIFE FINANCIAL INCSLF$44.0B$79.06$30.6B$2.6B14.5%0.33——3/73/72/6F-Score 65/10
HARTFORD INSURANCE GROUP, INC.HIG$34.8B$125.85$28.4B$3.8B20.2%0.23——4/73/74/6F-Score 78/10