Aon plc

AON
About the company

Aon plc operates as a professional services firm in the United States, rest of the Americas, the United Kingdom, Ireland, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through Risk Capital and Human Capital segments. The company offers commercial risk solutions comprising retail and insurance brokerage, specialty solutions, global risk consulting, captives management, and affinity programs; health solutions, such as consulting and brokerage, consumer benefits, and talent advisory services; and wealth solutions, including retirement consulting and investments.

Country: IrelandPrice: $275.90Market Cap: $58.5B

Investment snapshot

47%positive consensus
Scored 37d ago

Positive

7

BUY / PASS

Neutral / negative

2 / 6

NEUTRAL / FAIL

Median fair value

$206.34

-25.2% vs price

Models with upside

2 / 15

Positive margin of safety

Strongest signal

6 of 10 pass — Oshaughnessy, Pabrai, Dreman +1 more object

Key risk

Split decision: 6 FAIL · 4 PASS · 3 BUY · 2 NEUTRAL

Framework analysis

VerdictMeaning
BUYPositive purchase signal: the framework's buy requirements are met.
PASSThe company clears the framework's checklist or screen, but the framework does not produce a buy signal. For valuation frameworks this often means margin of safety is missing, insufficient, or unavailable; some screen-only frameworks have no intrinsic-value BUY state.
NEUTRALNeither a positive nor negative conclusion. It does not mean to hold an existing position.
FAILThe company does not clear the framework's requirements.
RankedRanked strategies do not use PASS: selected cohort is BUY, outside the cohort is FAIL, and unranked is NEUTRAL.
Scored from 10-K37d ago
MetricO'Shaughnessy

Systematic Factor Composite

Munger

Quality Focus

Marks

Risk-Aware Value

Buffett

Quality Compounder

Lynch

GARP

Pabrai

Dhandho Framework

Akre

Three-Legged Stool

Schloss

Asset-Value Discipline

Neff

Low-P/E Total Return

Sleep

Scale Economies Shared

Templeton

Global Bargain Hunter

Ackman

Activist Value

Dreman

Contrarian Value

Piotroski

F-Score

Graham

Defensive Value

VerdictNEUTRALPASSFAILPASSFAILFAILPASSFAILNEUTRALBUYPASSBUYFAILBUYFAIL
Score
Analysis
Intrinsic ValueN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Margin of SafetyN/A-36.2%-106.7%N/A-7.8%N/A+41.3%N/AN/AN/A-54.0%+22.6%-31.3%N/A-113.4%
Data As Of10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-24)10-K (2026-08-24)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)

Where It Passes

  • Cash Flow60% pass✓ 8✗ 4▾

    6 of 10 pass — Oshaughnessy, Pabrai, Dreman +1 more object

    (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization+5.50%; #1357/4487 (top 30.2%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    FCF Positive18/18 years FCF positive
    ✓MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years
    Free Cash Flow Proxy$1.2B
    ✓BuffettPositive and growing
    FCF Positive and Growing$3.2B
    ✓LynchPositive and growing
    P/E or FCF YieldP/E=16.2x, FCF Yield=5.5%
    ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
    Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures$3.2B
    ✓Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)
    Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency27/27 years positive
    ✓SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years
    (OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap5.4%
    ✓Ackman>= 4%
    Price / FCF per Share18.4x
    ✓Ackman<= 25
    Price / (CFO / Shares)17.0x
    ✗Dreman< 8x
    Operating Cash Flow$3.5B
    ✓PiotroskiCFO > 0
    (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=6.85%, ROA=7.28%
    ✗PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
  • Verdicts54% pass✓ 7✗ 6▾

    Split decision: 6 FAIL · 4 PASS · 3 BUY · 2 NEUTRAL

    Overall verdict
    •OshaughnessyNEUTRAL (Not ranked)✓MungerPASS (2/4)✗MarksFAIL (2/5)✓BuffettPASS (4/7)✗LynchFAIL (3/6)✗PabraiFAIL (0/3)✓AkrePASS (3/6)✗SchlossFAIL (3/7)•NeffNEUTRAL (5/6)✓SleepBUY (5/6)✓TempletonPASS (4/8)✓AckmanBUY (8/9)✗DremanFAIL (3/10)✓PiotroskiBUY (F-Score 6)✗GrahamFAIL (2/7)

Where It Falls Short

  • Debt & Leverage10% pass✓ 1✗ 11▾

    9 of 10 flag AON's debt & leverage — Munger, Marks, Buffett +6 more

    Debt Levels1.63
    ✗MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✗AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3
    Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=5.5x, D/EBITDA=N/A (D&A unavailable)
    ✗MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x
    Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 1.63, IC: 5.5x
    ✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x
    Total Debt / Equity1.63
    ✗Lynch< 0.33
    Cash - Long-term Debt$-13.5B
    ✗LynchPositive preferred
    Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity1.63x
    ✗SchlossD/E < 1.00x✗Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✗Dreman< 0.8
    Current Assets / Current Liabilities1.11x
    ✗SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)
    Total Debt / Shareholders Equity1.63
    ✗Ackman<= 1.0
    LT Debt / Total Assets Change33.22% -> 28.87%
    ✓PiotroskiDecreased YoY
  • Valuation18% pass✓ 5✗ 19▾

    9 of 11 flag AON's valuation — Oshaughnessy, Marks, Lynch +6 more

    Revenue / market capitalization+0.2936; #3213/5203 (top 61.8%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Net income / market capitalization+6.31%; #1234/6251 (top 19.7%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization+5.50%; #1357/4487 (top 30.2%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date-14.52%; #4207/6203 (top 67.8%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Valuation ReasonablenessP/E=16.2x
    ✓MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%
    P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/E=16.2x, P/B=6.3x
    ✗MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0
    Discount to Intrinsic Value-31.3% (IV=$210.10 vs Price=$275.90)
    ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)1.08
    ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    P/E or FCF YieldP/E=16.2x, FCF Yield=5.5%
    ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
    Price / Book Value per Share6.32x
    ✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)✗Templeton< 1.5x✗Dreman< 1.2x
    Price / Tangible Book Value per ShareN/A (non-positive TBVPS)
    ✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)
    Book Value per Share Change+182.2%
    ✓SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)
    Price / Diluted EPS16.2x
    ✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)
    (EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E0.99
    ✓Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)
    Price / EPS16.2x
    ✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)✗Dreman< 12x
    Price vs. Trailing Low100% of trailing low ($275.90)
    ✓Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)
    Price / FCF per Share18.4x
    ✓Ackman<= 25
    Price / (CFO / Shares)17.0x
    ✗Dreman< 8x
    Price / 3-yr avg EPS19.7x
    ✗Graham<= 15x
    Price-to-Book Ratio6.3x
    ✗Graham<= 1.5x
    P/E x P/B124.50
    ✗Graham<= 22.5
  • Valuation models25% pass✓ 2✗ 6▾

    Models split on AON at $275.90 — fair values range $129.29–$470.19

    Munger fair value$202.58
    ✗Munger-36.2% margin vs $275.90
    Marks fair value$133.47
    ✗Marks-106.7% margin vs $275.90
    Lynch fair value$255.85
    ✗Lynch-7.8% margin vs $275.90
    Akre fair value$470.19
    ✓Akre+41.3% margin vs $275.90
    Templeton fair value$179.13
    ✗Templeton-54.0% margin vs $275.90
    Ackman fair value$356.25
    ✓Ackman+22.6% margin vs $275.90
    Dreman fair value$210.10
    ✗Dreman-31.3% margin vs $275.90
    Graham fair value$129.29
    ✗Graham-113.4% margin vs $275.90
  • Profitability36% pass✓ 17✗ 11▾

    9 of 14 flag AON's profitability — Oshaughnessy, Marks, Buffett +6 more

    Net income / market capitalization+6.31%; #1234/6251 (top 19.7%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Discount to Intrinsic Value-31.3% (IV=$210.10 vs Price=$275.90)
    ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
    Positive Net Income Frequency29/29 years positive
    ✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
    Net Income Positive (10+ years)29/29 years positive
    ✓BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years
    ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)60.6%
    ✓Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)
    Operating Margin (10-yr trend)25.3% (latest)
    ✓BuffettStable or rising over 10 years
    Free Cash Flow Proxy$1.2B
    ✓BuffettPositive and growing
    Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)2.78
    ✗BuffettCoV < 0.3
    Retained Earnings Effectiveness
    ✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created
    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)1.08
    ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    3-5 Year EPS CAGR15.0%
    ✓Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
    ROE39.5%
    ✓Lynch> 15%
    Margin of SafetyP/E=16.2x, P/B=6.3x
    ✗PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15
    Return on Equity67.1% (3-yr avg)
    ✓AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)
    Positive Diluted-EPS Years10/10 years positive
    ✓Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
    3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR15.0% over 5 years
    ✓Neff7%-20% annualized
    Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendrevenue up, operating margin 28.3% -> 25.3%
    ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
    5-Year EPS CAGR15.0% CAGR over 5 years
    ✓Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
    Operating Margin Trend28.3% (2023) -> 25.3% (2025)
    ✗TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years
    Operating Income / Revenue25.3%
    ✓Ackman>= 15%
    Net Income / Shareholders Equity39.5%
    ✓Ackman>= 15%
    Pre-Tax Income / Revenue27.7%
    ✓Dreman>= 8%
    Net Income / Shareholders' Equity39.5%
    ✓Dreman> 12%
    Net Income / Total Assets7.28%
    ✓PiotroskiROA > 0
    ROA Change YoY5.42% -> 7.28% (delta: +1.86%)
    ✓PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA
    (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=6.85%, ROA=7.28%
    ✗PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
    Positive EPS (10 years)20/29 years positive
    ✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years
    EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)
    ✗Graham>= 33% growth
  • Growth50% pass✓ 7✗ 5▾

    4 of 8 pass — Lynch, Sleep, Dreman +1 more object

    Positive Net Income Frequency29/29 years positive
    ✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)1.08
    ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    3-5 Year EPS CAGR15.0%
    ✓Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
    3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR15.0% over 5 years
    ✓Neff7%-20% annualized
    Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendrevenue up, operating margin 28.3% -> 25.3%
    ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
    5-year Revenue CAGR9.2%
    ✓SleepCAGR > 7%
    5-Year EPS CAGR15.0% CAGR over 5 years
    ✓Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
    3yr Median Revenue Growth9.4%
    ✓Ackman>= 5%
    Positive EPS Growth Frequency3/5 years with positive EPS growth
    ✓AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years
    EPS Growth Direction$727.00 (2006) -> $17.02 (2025)
    ✗DremanPositive over recent years
    EPS CAGR-17.9% CAGR over 19 years
    ✗Dreman> 5% annualized
    EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)
    ✗Graham>= 33% growth
  • Efficiency50% pass✓ 3✗ 2▾

    2 of 4 pass — Munger and Akre object

    Return on Invested Capital13.9%
    ✗Munger> 15%
    ROIC (high and growing)FY2023: ROIC=28.8%; FY2024: ROIC=13.1%; FY2025: ROIC=13.9%
    ✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each
    Reinvestment Rate x ROIC11.6% (RR=83% x ROIC=13.9%)
    ✓AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%
    ROIC (5-year)5/5 years above 12% (latest 13.9%)
    ✓SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years
    Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.32x -> 0.34x
    ✓PiotroskiImproved YoY

Business & financials

Company Profile

Industry: Insurance
SIC Sector: Insurance Agents & Brokers
Size: Large Cap($58.5B)
Revenue: $17.2B+9.4% YoY
Net Income: $3.7B+39.2% YoY

Financial Snapshot

Operating Margin25.3%
Return on Equity39.5%
Debt / Equity1.63
Current Ratio1.11
EPS (Diluted)$17.02+36.3% 1y
Buybacks (1y)$1.0B
Buybacks (2y)$2.0B
Shares Retired0.8% / −8.0% 2y

Similar Companies

UNHUNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC
$336.5B
PGRPROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/
$122.2B
CILJFCHINA LIFE INSURANCE CO LTD
$107.4B
MRSHMARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES, INC.
$81.3B
Sector-adjusted criteria: Insurer

Insurers file unclassified balance sheets with no inventory or current accounts, so those criteria are omitted rather than failed for missing data. Return-on-invested-capital tests are omitted too: float funds the balance sheet but never appears in invested capital, and the portfolio it is invested in would be subtracted as spare cash. Debt tests are kept — an insurer’s borrowings are real leverage on top of underwriting.

Shareholder Return

Fiscal 2025

Retired 0.8% of shares last year, 8.0% issued over two.

Buybacks
$1.0B
Dividends
$629.0M

What drove EPS

A buyback raises earnings per share without the company earning more. This splits each year's change into the two.

FY22
118.7% = 106.3% + 6.0%
FY23
3.0% = −1.0% + 4.1%
FY24
−0.2% = 3.5% + −3.5%
FY25
36.3% = 39.2% + −2.1%
Earnings Fewer shares More shares

The two parts do not sum exactly to the total — the difference is the cross-term, plus preferred capital where the company has any. It is left visible rather than distributed into the other two.

Share count is the denominator the filer used for diluted EPS, recovered as net income ÷ EPS — not the balance-sheet count, which is a point-in-time figure and would put the timing difference into this split. Years with a loss are omitted: a smaller share count makes a loss per share larger, so the decomposition inverts.

Company Financials

Annual data (10-K) · Last 5 years

MetricFY 2025FY 2024FY 2023FY 2022FY 2021
Market Cap$58.5B$79.6Best.$58.3Best.$64.0Best.$57.4Best.
Revenue$17.2B↑9%$15.7B↑17%$13.4B↑7%$12.5B↑2%$12.2B
Operating Income$4.3B↑13%$3.8B↑1%$3.8B↑3%$3.7B↑76%$2.1B
Net Income$3.7B↑39%$2.7B↑4%$2.6B↓1%$2.6B↑106%$1.3B
EPS (Diluted)$17.02↑36%$12.49$12.51↑3%$12.14↑119%$5.55
Gross Margin—————
Operating Margin25.3%↑3%24.4%↓14%28.3%↓4%29.4%↑72%17.1%
ROE39.5%↓9%43.4%↑114%-310.4%↑37%-489.4%↓514%118.3%
Total Debt$15.2B↓10%$17.0B↑52%$11.2B↑4%$10.8B↑15%$9.4B
Shareholders' Equity$9.4B↑53%$6.1B↑841%-$826.0M↓56%-$529.0M↓150%$1.1B
Current Ratio1.11↑9%1.02↑2%1.00↓2%1.02↑2%1.00
Debt / Equity1.63↓41%2.78↑121%-13.56↑33%-20.36↓330%8.85
Operating Cash Flow$3.5B↑15%$3.0B↓12%$3.4B↑7%$3.2B↑48%$2.2B
Free Cash Flow$3.2B↑14%$2.8B↓11%$3.2B↑5%$3.0B↑48%$2.0B

Score history

Historical Score Timeline

Industry peers

Industry Peers

Similar companies in Insurance

AON vs Peers — Financial Grading

Revenue$17.2BBottom 25%
Net Income$3.7BMedian
ROE39.5%Top 25%
D/E1.63Bottom 25%
Op. Margin25.3%Top 25%
Curr. Ratio1.11Median
CompanyMarket CapPriceRevenueNet IncomeROED/EOp. MarginCurr. RatioGrahamBuffettLynchPiotroskiDreman
UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INCUNH$336.5B$374.94$447.6B$12.1B12.0%0.784.2%0.793/74/70/6F-Score 63/10
PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/PGR$122.2B$210.52$87.7B$11.3B37.3%0.23——2/72/75/6F-Score 68/10
CHINA LIFE INSURANCE CO LTDCILJF$107.4B$3.80——————3/71/73/6F-Score 55/10
MARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES, INC.MRSH$81.3B$170.42$27.0B$4.2B27.2%1.2823.1%1.103/73/73/6F-Score 65/10
AFLAC INCAFL$57.0B$113.66$17.2B$3.6B12.4%0.29——3/74/72/6F-Score 44/10
HUMANA INCHUM$46.5B$386.87$129.7B$1.2B6.7%0.702.1%2.003/72/70/6F-Score 44/10
SUN LIFE FINANCIAL INCSLF$44.0B$79.06$30.6B$2.6B14.5%0.33——3/73/72/6F-Score 65/10
HARTFORD INSURANCE GROUP, INC.HIG$34.8B$125.85$28.4B$3.8B20.2%0.23——4/73/74/6F-Score 78/10