AFLAC INC

AFL
About the company

Aflac Incorporated, through its subsidiaries, provides supplemental health and life insurance products. It operates in two segments, Aflac Japan and Aflac U.S. The Aflac Japan segment offers cancer, medical, nursing care, whole life, and GIFT insurance products, as well as WAYS and child endowment, and Tsumitasu insurance products in Japan. Its Aflac U.S.

Country: United StatesPrice: $113.66Market Cap: $57.0B

Investment snapshot

33%positive consensus
Scored 37d ago

Positive

5

BUY / PASS

Neutral / negative

4 / 6

NEUTRAL / FAIL

Median fair value

$102.82

-9.5% vs price

Models with upside

2 / 15

Positive margin of safety

Strongest signal

8 of 10 pass — Lynch and Schloss object

Key risk

All 4 investors flag AFL's efficiency

Framework analysis

VerdictMeaning
BUYPositive purchase signal: the framework's buy requirements are met.
PASSThe company clears the framework's checklist or screen, but the framework does not produce a buy signal. For valuation frameworks this often means margin of safety is missing, insufficient, or unavailable; some screen-only frameworks have no intrinsic-value BUY state.
NEUTRALNeither a positive nor negative conclusion. It does not mean to hold an existing position.
FAILThe company does not clear the framework's requirements.
RankedRanked strategies do not use PASS: selected cohort is BUY, outside the cohort is FAIL, and unranked is NEUTRAL.
Scored from 10-K37d ago
MetricO'Shaughnessy

Systematic Factor Composite

Lynch

GARP

Buffett

Quality Compounder

Pabrai

Dhandho Framework

Akre

Three-Legged Stool

Schloss

Asset-Value Discipline

Neff

Low-P/E Total Return

Sleep

Scale Economies Shared

Templeton

Global Bargain Hunter

Marks

Risk-Aware Value

Munger

Quality Focus

Ackman

Activist Value

Dreman

Contrarian Value

Piotroski

F-Score

Graham

Defensive Value

VerdictNEUTRALFAILPASSFAILFAILNEUTRALFAILFAILNEUTRALFAILNEUTRALPASSPASSPASSPASS
Score
Analysis
Intrinsic ValueN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Margin of SafetyN/A-3638.5%N/A-146.2%+54.9%N/AN/AN/A-1.3%N/AN/AN/A+6.2%N/A-21.7%
Data As Of10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-24)10-K (2026-08-24)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)

Where It Passes

  • Debt & Leverage80% pass✓ 10✗ 2▾

    8 of 10 pass — Lynch and Schloss object

    Total Debt / Equity0.29
    ✓Lynch< 0.33
    Cash - Long-term Debt
    ✗LynchPositive preferred
    Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 0.29, IC: 21.9x
    ✓BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x
    Debt Levels0.29
    ✓AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3✓MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5
    Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity0.29x
    ✓SchlossD/E < 1.00x✓Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✓Dreman< 0.8
    Current Assets / Current Liabilities
    ✗SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)
    Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=21.9x, D/EBITDA=1.8x
    ✓MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x
    Total Debt / Shareholders Equity0.29
    ✓Ackman<= 1.0
    LT Debt / Total Assets Change0.00% -> 0.00%
    ✓PiotroskiDecreased YoY

Where It Falls Short

  • Efficiency0% pass✗ 5▾

    All 4 investors flag AFL's efficiency

    ROIC (high and growing)FY2023: ROIC=unavailable; FY2024: ROIC=unavailable; FY2025: ROIC=unavailable
    ✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each
    Reinvestment Rate x ROIC
    ✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%
    ROIC (5-year)1/2 years above 12% (latest 11.9%)
    ✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years
    Return on Invested Capital
    ✗Munger> 15%
    Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.16x -> 0.15x
    ✗PiotroskiImproved YoY
  • Valuation9% pass✓ 5✗ 19▾

    10 of 11 flag AFL's valuation — Oshaughnessy, Lynch, Pabrai +7 more

    Revenue / market capitalization+0.3012; #3164/5203 (top 60.8%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Net income / market capitalization+6.40%; #1216/6251 (top 19.5%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date+3.60%; #2653/6203 (top 42.8%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)37.39
    ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    P/E or FCF YieldP/E=16.7x
    ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
    Price / Book Value per Share2.00x
    ✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)✗Templeton< 1.5x✗Dreman< 1.2x
    Price / Tangible Book Value per Share2.02x
    ✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)
    Book Value per Share Change+17.3%
    ✓SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)
    Price / Diluted EPS16.7x
    ✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)
    (EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E0.15
    ✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)
    Price / EPS16.7x
    ✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)✗Dreman< 12x
    Price vs. Trailing Low114% of trailing low ($99.36)
    ✓Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)
    P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/E=16.7x, P/B=2.0x
    ✓MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0
    Discount to Intrinsic Value6.2% (IV=$121.15 vs Price=$113.66)
    ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
    Valuation ReasonablenessP/E=16.7x, OE Yield=6.2%
    ✓MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%
    Price / FCF per Share
    ✗Ackman<= 25
    Price / (CFO / Shares)23.1x
    ✗Dreman< 8x
    Price / 3-yr avg EPS14.1x
    ✓Graham<= 15x
    Price-to-Book Ratio2.0x
    ✗Graham<= 1.5x
    P/E x P/B28.10
    ✗Graham<= 22.5
  • Cash Flow10% pass✓ 2✗ 10▾

    9 of 10 flag AFL's cash flow — Oshaughnessy, Lynch, Buffett +6 more

    (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    FCF Positive and Growing
    ✗LynchPositive and growing
    Free Cash Flow Proxy
    ✗BuffettPositive and growing
    P/E or FCF YieldP/E=16.7x
    ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
    Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures
    ✗Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)
    Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency25/25 years positive
    ✓SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years
    FCF Positive
    ✗MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years
    (OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap
    ✗Ackman>= 4%
    Price / FCF per Share
    ✗Ackman<= 25
    Price / (CFO / Shares)23.1x
    ✗Dreman< 8x
    Operating Cash Flow$2.6B
    ✓PiotroskiCFO > 0
    (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=2.19%, ROA=3.13%
    ✗PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
  • Profitability14% pass✓ 10✗ 18▾

    12 of 14 flag AFL's profitability — Oshaughnessy, Lynch, Buffett +9 more

    Net income / market capitalization+6.40%; #1216/6251 (top 19.5%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)37.39
    ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    3-5 Year EPS CAGR0.4%
    ✓Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
    ROE12.4%
    ✗Lynch> 15%
    Net Income Positive (10+ years)28/28 years positive
    ✓BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years
    ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)20.2%
    ✓Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)
    Operating Margin (10-yr trend)21.7% (latest)
    ✓BuffettStable or rising over 10 years
    Free Cash Flow Proxy
    ✗BuffettPositive and growing
    Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)
    ✗BuffettCoV < 0.3
    Retained Earnings Effectiveness
    ✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created
    Margin of SafetyP/E=16.7x, P/B=2.0x
    ✗PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15
    Return on Equity18.1% (3-yr avg)
    ✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)
    Positive Diluted-EPS Years10/10 years positive
    ✓Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
    3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR0.4% over 5 years
    ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
    Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trend
    ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
    5-Year EPS CAGR0.4% CAGR over 5 years
    ✓Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
    Operating Margin Trend
    ✗TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years
    Discount to Intrinsic Value6.2% (IV=$121.15 vs Price=$113.66)
    ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
    Positive Net Income Frequency28/28 years positive
    ✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
    Operating Income / Revenue
    ✗Ackman>= 15%
    Net Income / Shareholders Equity12.4%
    ✗Ackman>= 15%
    Pre-Tax Income / Revenue26.4%
    ✓Dreman>= 8%
    Net Income / Shareholders' Equity12.4%
    ✓Dreman> 12%
    Net Income / Total Assets3.13%
    ✓PiotroskiROA > 0
    ROA Change YoY4.63% -> 3.13% (delta: -1.50%)
    ✗PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA
    (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=2.19%, ROA=3.13%
    ✗PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
    Positive EPS (10 years)18/28 years positive
    ✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years
    EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)
    ✗Graham>= 33% growth
  • Growth25% pass✓ 4✗ 8▾

    6 of 8 flag AFL's growth — Lynch, Neff, Sleep +3 more

    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)37.39
    ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    3-5 Year EPS CAGR0.4%
    ✓Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
    3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR0.4% over 5 years
    ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
    Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trend
    ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
    5-year Revenue CAGR-5.0%
    ✗SleepCAGR > 7%
    5-Year EPS CAGR0.4% CAGR over 5 years
    ✓Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
    Positive Net Income Frequency28/28 years positive
    ✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
    3yr Median Revenue Growth-2.3%
    ✗Ackman>= 5%
    Positive EPS Growth Frequency3/5 years with positive EPS growth
    ✓AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years
    EPS Growth Direction
    ✗DremanPositive over recent years
    EPS CAGR
    ✗Dreman> 5% annualized
    EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)
    ✗Graham>= 33% growth
  • Valuation models33% pass✓ 2✗ 4▾

    Models split on AFL at $113.66 — fair values range $3.04–$251.88

    Lynch fair value$3.04
    ✗Lynch-3638.5% margin vs $113.66
    Pabrai fair value$46.16
    ✗Pabrai-146.2% margin vs $113.66
    Akre fair value$251.88
    ✓Akre+54.9% margin vs $113.66
    Templeton fair value$112.23
    ✗Templeton-1.3% margin vs $113.66
    Dreman fair value$121.15
    ✓Dreman+6.2% margin vs $113.66
    Graham fair value$93.40
    ✗Graham-21.7% margin vs $113.66
  • Verdicts45% pass✓ 5✗ 6▾

    Split decision: 6 FAIL · 5 PASS · 4 NEUTRAL

    Overall verdict
    •OshaughnessyNEUTRAL (Not ranked)✗LynchFAIL (2/6)✓BuffettPASS (4/7)✗PabraiFAIL (0/3)✗AkreFAIL (1/6)•SchlossNEUTRAL (4/7)✗NeffFAIL (1/6)✗SleepFAIL (2/6)•TempletonNEUTRAL (5/8)✗MarksFAIL (3/5)•MungerNEUTRAL (3/4)✓AckmanPASS (4/9)✓DremanPASS (4/10)✓PiotroskiPASS (F-Score 4)✓GrahamPASS (3/7)

Business & financials

Company Profile

Industry: Insurance
SIC Sector: Insurance Carriers
Size: Large Cap($57.0B)
Revenue: $17.2B-9.3% YoY
Net Income: $3.6B-33.0% YoY

Financial Snapshot

Operating Margin--
Return on Equity12.4%
Debt / Equity0.29
Current Ratio--
EPS (Diluted)$6.82−29.2% 1y
Buybacks (1y)$3.5B
Buybacks (2y)$6.3B
Shares Retired5.7% / 10.3% 2y

Similar Companies

UNHUNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC
$336.5B
PGRPROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/
$122.2B
CILJFCHINA LIFE INSURANCE CO LTD
$107.4B
MRSHMARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES, INC.
$81.3B
Sector-adjusted criteria: Insurer

Insurers file unclassified balance sheets with no inventory or current accounts, so those criteria are omitted rather than failed for missing data. Return-on-invested-capital tests are omitted too: float funds the balance sheet but never appears in invested capital, and the portfolio it is invested in would be subtracted as spare cash. Debt tests are kept — an insurer’s borrowings are real leverage on top of underwriting.

Shareholder Return

Fiscal 2025

Retired 5.7% of shares last year, 10.3% over two.

Buybacks
$3.5B
Dividends
$1.2B

What drove EPS

A buyback raises earnings per share without the company earning more. This splits each year's change into the two.

FY22
3.1% = 4.4% + −1.2%
FY23
18.1% = 5.5% + 12.0%
FY24
23.8% = 16.8% + 6.0%
FY25
−29.2% = −33.0% + 5.7%
Earnings Fewer shares More shares

The two parts do not sum exactly to the total — the difference is the cross-term, plus preferred capital where the company has any. It is left visible rather than distributed into the other two.

Share count is the denominator the filer used for diluted EPS, recovered as net income ÷ EPS — not the balance-sheet count, which is a point-in-time figure and would put the timing difference into this split. Years with a loss are omitted: a smaller share count makes a loss per share larger, so the decomposition inverts.

Company Financials

Annual data (10-K) · Last 5 years

MetricFY 2025FY 2024FY 2023FY 2022FY 2021
Market Cap$57.0B$57.5Best.$46.5Best.$42.1Best.$37.2Best.
Revenue$17.2B↓9%$18.9B↑1%$18.7B↓2%$19.1B↓11%$21.6B
Operating Income------$4.2B↓16%$4.9B
Net Income$3.6B↓33%$5.4B↑17%$4.7B↑5%$4.4B↑4%$4.2B
EPS (Diluted)$6.82↓29%$9.63↑24%$7.78↑18%$6.59↑3%$6.39
Gross Margin—————
Operating Margin———21.7%↓5%22.9%
ROE12.4%↓41%20.9%↓2%21.2%↓3%21.9%↓12%24.8%
Total Debt$8.4B↑12%$7.5B↑2%$7.4B↓1%$7.4B↓6%$8.0B
Shareholders' Equity$29.5B↑13%$26.1B↑19%$22.0B↑9%$20.1B↑18%$17.0B
Current Ratio—————
Debt / Equity0.29↓1%0.29↓14%0.33↓9%0.37↓21%0.47
Operating Cash Flow$2.6B↓6%$2.7B↓15%$3.2B↓18%$3.9B↓23%$5.1B
Free Cash Flow----------

Score history

Historical Score Timeline

Industry peers

Industry Peers

Similar companies in Insurance

AFL vs Peers — Financial Grading

Revenue$17.2BBottom 25%
Net Income$3.6BMedian
ROE12.4%Median
D/E0.29Median
Op. Margin—
Curr. Ratio—
CompanyMarket CapPriceRevenueNet IncomeROED/EOp. MarginCurr. RatioGrahamBuffettLynchPiotroskiDreman
UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INCUNH$336.5B$374.94$447.6B$12.1B12.0%0.784.2%0.793/74/70/6F-Score 63/10
PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/PGR$122.2B$210.52$87.7B$11.3B37.3%0.23——2/72/75/6F-Score 68/10
CHINA LIFE INSURANCE CO LTDCILJF$107.4B$3.80——————3/71/73/6F-Score 55/10
MARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES, INC.MRSH$81.3B$170.42$27.0B$4.2B27.2%1.2823.1%1.103/73/73/6F-Score 65/10
Aon plcAON$58.5B$275.90$17.2B$3.7B39.5%1.6325.3%1.112/74/73/6F-Score 63/10
HUMANA INCHUM$46.5B$386.87$129.7B$1.2B6.7%0.702.1%2.003/72/70/6F-Score 44/10
SUN LIFE FINANCIAL INCSLF$44.0B$79.06$30.6B$2.6B14.5%0.33——3/73/72/6F-Score 65/10
HARTFORD INSURANCE GROUP, INC.HIG$34.8B$125.85$28.4B$3.8B20.2%0.23——4/73/74/6F-Score 78/10