WARRIOR MET COAL, INC.

HCC
About the company

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. engages in the production and export of non-thermal steelmaking coal for the steel production by metal manufacturers in Europe, South America, and Asia. It offers hard-coking coal through the operation of underground mines located in Alabama. The company also sells natural gas extracted as a byproduct from coal production. Warrior Met Coal, Inc.

Country: United StatesPrice: $91.75Market Cap: $4.8B

Investment snapshot

13%positive consensus
Scored 37d ago

Positive

2

BUY / PASS

Neutral / negative

4 / 9

NEUTRAL / FAIL

Median fair value

$75.35

-17.9% vs price

Models with upside

2 / 16

Positive margin of safety

Strongest signal

9 of 11 pass — Buffett and Marks object

Key risk

14 of 15 flag HCC's profitability — Oshaughnessy, Lynch, Buffett +11 more

Framework analysis

VerdictMeaning
BUYPositive purchase signal: the framework's buy requirements are met.
PASSThe company clears the framework's checklist or screen, but the framework does not produce a buy signal. For valuation frameworks this often means margin of safety is missing, insufficient, or unavailable; some screen-only frameworks have no intrinsic-value BUY state.
NEUTRALNeither a positive nor negative conclusion. It does not mean to hold an existing position.
FAILThe company does not clear the framework's requirements.
RankedRanked strategies do not use PASS: selected cohort is BUY, outside the cohort is FAIL, and unranked is NEUTRAL.
Scored from 10-K37d ago
MetricO'Shaughnessy

Systematic Factor Composite

Lynch

GARP

Buffett

Quality Compounder

Pabrai

Dhandho Framework

Akre

Three-Legged Stool

Schloss

Asset-Value Discipline

Neff

Low-P/E Total Return

Sleep

Scale Economies Shared

Templeton

Global Bargain Hunter

Marks

Risk-Aware Value

Munger

Quality Focus

Ackman

Activist Value

Dreman

Contrarian Value

Piotroski

F-Score

Greenblatt

Magic Formula

Graham

Defensive Value

VerdictNEUTRALFAILPASSFAILFAILNEUTRALFAILNEUTRALFAILFAILNEUTRALFAILFAILPASSFAIL · Rank #1779 (Top 55.4%)FAIL
Score
Analysis
Intrinsic ValueN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Margin of SafetyN/AN/AN/A-537.6%+72.0%N/AN/AN/A-0.6%+4.0%N/AN/A-21.8%N/A-117.5%-191.6%
Data As Of10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-24)10-K (2026-08-24)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)

Where It Passes

  • Debt & Leverage82% pass✓ 12✗ 2▾

    9 of 11 pass — Buffett and Marks object

    Total Debt / Equity0.07
    ✓Lynch< 0.33
    Cash - Long-term Debt$145.7M
    ✓LynchPositive preferred
    Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 0.07, IC: 2.3x
    ✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x
    Debt Levels0.07
    ✓AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3✓MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5
    Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity0.07x
    ✓SchlossD/E < 1.00x✓Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✓Dreman< 0.8
    Current Assets / Current Liabilities3.19x
    ✓SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)✓Dreman> 1.5
    Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=2.3x, D/EBITDA=0.7x
    ✗MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x
    Total Debt / Shareholders Equity0.07
    ✓Ackman<= 1.0
    LT Debt / Total Assets Change5.93% -> 5.54%
    ✓PiotroskiDecreased YoY
    LT Debt vs Net Current AssetsLT Debt $154.3M vs NCA $563.2M
    ✓GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets

Where It Falls Short

  • Profitability7% pass✓ 6✗ 25▾

    14 of 15 flag HCC's profitability — Oshaughnessy, Lynch, Buffett +11 more

    Net income / market capitalization+1.18%; #2782/6251 (top 44.5%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)P/E 85.0x (growth N/A)
    ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    3-5 Year EPS CAGR-22.1%
    ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
    ROE2.7%
    ✗Lynch> 15%
    Net Income Positive (10+ years)8/11 years positive
    ✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years
    ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)20.4%
    ✓Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)
    Operating Margin (10-yr trend)3.5% (latest)
    ✗BuffettStable or rising over 10 years
    Free Cash Flow Proxy$641.3M
    ✓BuffettPositive and growing
    Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)0.72
    ✗BuffettCoV < 0.3
    Retained Earnings Effectiveness
    ✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created
    Margin of SafetyP/E=85.0x, P/B=2.3x
    ✗PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15
    Return on Equity13.4% (3-yr avg)
    ✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)
    Positive Diluted-EPS Years8/9 years positive
    ✓Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
    3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR-22.1% over 4 years
    ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
    Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 45.7% -> 25.0%, operating margin 32.3% -> 3.5%
    ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
    5-Year EPS CAGR-22.1% CAGR over 4 years
    ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
    Operating Margin Trend32.3% (2023) -> 3.5% (2025)
    ✗TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years
    Discount to Intrinsic Value-21.8% (IV=$75.35 vs Price=$91.75)
    ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
    Positive Net Income Frequency8/10 years positive
    ✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
    Operating Income / Revenue3.5%
    ✗Ackman>= 15%
    Net Income / Shareholders Equity2.7%
    ✗Ackman>= 15%
    Pre-Tax Income / Revenue4.2%
    ✗Dreman>= 8%
    Net Income / Shareholders' Equity2.7%
    ✗Dreman> 12%
    Net Income / Total Assets2.05%
    ✓PiotroskiROA > 0
    ROA Change YoY9.67% -> 2.05% (delta: -7.62%)
    ✗PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA
    (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=8.24%, ROA=2.05%
    ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
    Gross Margin Change YoY34.0% -> 25.0%
    ✗PiotroskiImproved YoY
    EBIT / Enterprise Value1.0%
    ✗Greenblatt> 10%
    Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=1.0%, ROC=2.2%
    ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
    Positive EPS (10 years)8/11 years positive
    ✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years
    EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)-41.7%
    ✗Graham>= 33% growth
  • Valuation8% pass✓ 2✗ 24▾

    11 of 12 flag HCC's valuation — Oshaughnessy, Lynch, Pabrai +8 more

    Revenue / market capitalization+0.2704; #3324/5203 (top 63.9%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Net income / market capitalization+1.18%; #2782/6251 (top 44.5%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date-1.50%; #3325/6203 (top 53.6%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)P/E 85.0x (growth N/A)
    ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    P/E or FCF YieldP/E=85.0x
    ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
    Price / Book Value per Share2.25x
    ✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)✗Templeton< 1.5x✗Dreman< 1.2x
    Price / Tangible Book Value per Share2.25x
    ✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)
    Book Value per Share Change+187.9%
    ✓SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)
    Price / Diluted EPS85.0x
    ✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)
    (EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E-0.26
    ✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)
    Price / EPS85.0x
    ✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)✗Dreman< 12x
    Price vs. Trailing Low202% of trailing low ($45.45)
    ✗Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)
    P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/E=85.0x, P/B=2.3x
    ✗MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0
    Discount to Intrinsic Value-21.8% (IV=$75.35 vs Price=$91.75)
    ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
    Valuation ReasonablenessP/E=85.0x, OE Yield=5.1%
    ✓MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%
    Price / FCF per Share
    ✗Ackman<= 25
    Price / (CFO / Shares)21.0x
    ✗Dreman< 8x
    EBIT / Enterprise Value1.0%
    ✗Greenblatt> 10%
    Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=1.0%, ROC=2.2%
    ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
    Price / 3-yr avg EPS18.3x
    ✗Graham<= 15x
    Price-to-Book Ratio2.3x
    ✗Graham<= 1.5x
    P/E x P/B41.10
    ✗Graham<= 22.5
  • Growth13% pass✓ 2✗ 11▾

    7 of 8 flag HCC's growth — Lynch, Neff, Sleep +4 more

    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)P/E 85.0x (growth N/A)
    ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    3-5 Year EPS CAGR-22.1%
    ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
    Inventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthInv: 13.7% vs Rev: -14.1%
    ✗LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth
    3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR-22.1% over 4 years
    ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
    Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 45.7% -> 25.0%, operating margin 32.3% -> 3.5%
    ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
    5-year Revenue CAGR10.8%
    ✓SleepCAGR > 7%
    5-Year EPS CAGR-22.1% CAGR over 4 years
    ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
    Positive Net Income Frequency8/10 years positive
    ✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
    3yr Median Revenue Growth-9.0%
    ✗Ackman>= 5%
    Positive EPS Growth Frequency2/5 years with positive EPS growth
    ✗AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years
    EPS Growth Direction$8.62 (2017) -> $1.08 (2025)
    ✗DremanPositive over recent years
    EPS CAGR-22.9% CAGR over 8 years
    ✗Dreman> 5% annualized
    EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)-41.7%
    ✗Graham>= 33% growth
  • Verdicts17% pass✓ 2✗ 10▾

    Split decision: 9 FAIL · 4 NEUTRAL · 2 PASS

    Overall verdict
    •OshaughnessyNEUTRAL (Not ranked)✗LynchFAIL (3/7)✓BuffettPASS (4/9)✗PabraiFAIL (0/3)✗AkreFAIL (1/6)•SchlossNEUTRAL (5/7)✗NeffFAIL (2/6)•SleepNEUTRAL (4/6)✗TempletonFAIL (3/8)✗MarksFAIL (2/5)•MungerNEUTRAL (3/4)✗AckmanFAIL (3/9)✗DremanFAIL (3/11)✓PiotroskiPASS (F-Score 4)✗GreenblattRank #1779✗GrahamFAIL (3/9)
  • Valuation models29% pass✓ 2✗ 5▾

    Models split on HCC at $91.75 — fair values range $14.39–$328.10

    Pabrai fair value$14.39
    ✗Pabrai-537.6% margin vs $91.75
    Akre fair value$328.10
    ✓Akre+72.0% margin vs $91.75
    Templeton fair value$91.20
    ✗Templeton-0.6% margin vs $91.75
    Marks fair value$95.58
    ✓Marks+4.0% margin vs $91.75
    Dreman fair value$75.35
    ✗Dreman-21.8% margin vs $91.75
    Greenblatt fair value$42.18
    ✗Greenblatt-117.5% margin vs $91.75
    Graham fair value$31.46
    ✗Graham-191.6% margin vs $91.75
  • Cash Flow50% pass✓ 6✗ 6▾

    5 of 10 pass — Oshaughnessy, Pabrai, Neff +2 more object

    (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    FCF Positive and Growing$636.7M
    ✓LynchPositive and growing
    Free Cash Flow Proxy$641.3M
    ✓BuffettPositive and growing
    P/E or FCF YieldP/E=85.0x
    ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
    Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures
    ✗Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)
    Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency9/9 years positive
    ✓SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years
    FCF Positive6/6 years FCF positive
    ✓MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years
    (OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap
    ✗Ackman>= 4%
    Price / FCF per Share
    ✗Ackman<= 25
    Price / (CFO / Shares)21.0x
    ✗Dreman< 8x
    Operating Cash Flow$229.2M
    ✓PiotroskiCFO > 0
    (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=8.24%, ROA=2.05%
    ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
  • Efficiency50% pass✓ 5✗ 6▾

    4 of 8 pass — Akre, Munger, Piotroski +1 more object

    ROIC (3-5 yr avg)27.8%
    ✓Buffett> 10%
    ROIC - WACC+17.8%
    ✓BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)
    ROIC (high and growing)FY2023: ROIC=21.1%; FY2024: ROIC=9.0%; FY2025: ROIC=1.6%
    ✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each
    Reinvestment Rate x ROIC1.1% (RR=69% x ROIC=1.6%)
    ✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%
    ROIC (5-year)3/5 years above 12% (latest 1.6%)
    ✓SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years
    Return on Invested Capital1.6%
    ✗Munger> 15%
    Current Assets / Current Liabilities3.19
    ✓Dreman> 1.5
    Current Ratio Change YoY5.20 -> 3.19
    ✗PiotroskiIncreased YoY
    Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.59x -> 0.47x
    ✗PiotroskiImproved YoY
    EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)2.2%
    ✗Greenblatt> 25%
    Current Ratio3.19
    ✓Graham>= 2.0

Business & financials

Company Profile

Industry: Coal
SIC Sector: Coal Mining
Size: Mid Cap($4.8B)
Revenue: $1.3B-14.1% YoY
Net Income: $57.0M-77.3% YoY

Financial Snapshot

Operating Margin3.5%
Return on Equity2.7%
Debt / Equity0.07
Current Ratio3.19
EPS (Diluted)$1.08−77.5% 1y
Shares Retired−0.3% / −0.8% 2y

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AMRAlpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.
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Shareholder Return

Fiscal 2025

Issued 0.3% of shares last year, 0.8% issued over two.

Buybacks
—
Dividends
$17.8M

What drove EPS

A buyback raises earnings per share without the company earning more. This splits each year's change into the two.

FY22
323.2% = 325.0% + −0.4%
FY23
−25.8% = −25.4% + −0.6%
FY24
−47.9% = −47.6% + −0.6%
FY25
−77.5% = −77.3% + −0.9%
Earnings Fewer shares More shares

The two parts do not sum exactly to the total — the difference is the cross-term, plus preferred capital where the company has any. It is left visible rather than distributed into the other two.

Share count is the denominator the filer used for diluted EPS, recovered as net income ÷ EPS — not the balance-sheet count, which is a point-in-time figure and would put the timing difference into this split. Years with a loss are omitted: a smaller share count makes a loss per share larger, so the decomposition inverts.

Company Financials

Annual data (10-K) · Last 5 years

MetricFY 2025FY 2024FY 2023FY 2022FY 2021
Market Cap$4.8B$2.7Best.$3.3Best.$1.9Best.$1.2Best.
Revenue$1.3B↓14%$1.5B↓9%$1.7B↓4%$1.7B↑64%$1.1B
Operating Income$45.7M↓82%$254.9M↓53%$541.4M↓32%$801.4M↑229%$243.8M
Net Income$57.0M↓77%$250.6M↓48%$478.6M↓25%$641.3M↑325%$150.9M
EPS (Diluted)$1.08↓77%$4.79↓48%$9.20↓26%$12.40↑323%$2.93
Gross Margin25.0%↓26%34.0%↓26%45.7%↓23%59.1%↑24%47.7%
Operating Margin3.5%↓79%16.7%↓48%32.3%↓30%46.1%↑100%23.0%
ROE2.7%↓78%12.0%↓53%25.5%↓42%44.3%↑156%17.3%
Total Debt$154.3M$153.6M$153.0M↓49%$302.6M↓11%$339.8M
Shareholders' Equity$2.1B↑2%$2.1B↑12%$1.9B↑29%$1.4B↑66%$872.0M
Current Ratio3.19↓39%5.20↓28%7.24↓5%7.66↑49%5.14
Debt / Equity0.07↓2%0.07↓10%0.08↓61%0.21↓46%0.39
Operating Cash Flow$229.2M↓38%$367.4M↓48%$701.1M↓17%$841.9M↑139%$351.5M
Free Cash Flow------$636.7M↑117%$293.6M

Score history

Historical Score Timeline

Industry peers

Industry Peers

Similar companies in Coal

HCC vs Peers — Financial Grading

Revenue$1.3BMedian
Net Income$57.0MTop 25%
ROE2.7%Median
D/E0.07Median
Op. Margin3.5%Median
Curr. Ratio3.19Top 25%
CompanyMarket CapPriceRevenueNet IncomeROED/EOp. MarginCurr. RatioGrahamBuffettLynchGreenblattPiotroskiDreman
Core Natural Resources, Inc.CNR$4.4B$86.50$4.2B$153.2M-4.2%0.11-4.4%1.603/93/92/70/3F-Score 34/11
ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS LPARLP$3.1B$24.38$2.2B$311.2M16.9%0.2417.6%2.104/96/95/71/3F-Score 48/11
PEABODY ENERGY CORPBTU$3.0B$24.37$3.9B$42.5M-1.2%0.10-2.1%1.853/93/91/70/3F-Score 44/11
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.AMR$2.1B$166.00$2.1B$61.7M-4.0%0.01-2.9%4.476/94/92/70/3F-Score 43/11
NATURAL RESOURCE PARTNERS LPNRP$1.5B$109.71$207.3M$136.4M21.6%0.0569.6%1.854/94/96/70/3F-Score 57/11
Ramaco Resources, Inc.METC$372.5M$8.38$536.6M$51.4M-10.6%0.02-10.4%5.463/92/92/70/3F-Score 32/11
NACCO INDUSTRIES INCNC$285.1M$37.78$277.2M$17.6M4.1%0.207.9%3.095/91/94/70/3F-Score 64/11
American Resources CorpAREC$195.8M$1.83$0.00$55.4M58.4%0.01—2.192/90/93/70/3F-Score 34/11