WARRIOR MET COAL, INC.

HCC

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. engages in the production and export of non-thermal steelmaking coal for the steel production by metal manufacturers in Europe, South America, and Asia. It offers hard-coking coal through the operation of underground mines located in Alabama. The company also sells natural gas extracted as a byproduct from coal production. Warrior Met Coal, Inc.

Country: United StatesPrice: $98.20Market Cap: $5.2B

Company Profile

Industry: Coal

SIC Sector: Coal Mining

Size: Mid Cap($5.2B)

Revenue: $1.3B-14.1% YoY

Net Income: $57.0M-77.3% YoY

Financial Snapshot

Operating Margin3.5%

Return on Equity2.7%

Debt / Equity0.07

Current Ratio3.19

EPS (Diluted)$1.08−77.5%

Shares Retired−0.5% / −1.0% 2y

Similar Companies

CNRCore Natural Resources, Inc.

$4.8B

ARLPALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS LP

$3.3B

BTUPEABODY ENERGY CORP

$3.1B

AMRAlpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.

$2.1B

Shareholder Return

Fiscal 2025

Issued 0.5% of shares last year, 1.0% issued over two.

Buybacks: —
Dividends: $17.8M

What drove EPS

A buyback raises earnings per share without the company earning more. This splits each year's change into the two.

FY22

323.2% = 325.0% + −0.4%

FY23

−25.8% = −25.4% + −0.6%

FY24

−47.9% = −47.6% + −0.6%

FY25

−77.5% = −77.3% + −0.9%

Earnings Fewer shares More shares

The two parts do not sum exactly to the total — the difference is the cross-term, plus preferred capital where the company has any. It is left visible rather than distributed into the other two.

Share count is the denominator the filer used for diluted EPS, recovered as net income ÷ EPS — not the balance-sheet count, which is a point-in-time figure and would put the timing difference into this split. Years with a loss are omitted: a smaller share count makes a loss per share larger, so the decomposition inverts.

Company Financials

Annual data (10-K) · Last 5 years

Metric	FY 2025	FY 2024	FY 2023	FY 2022	FY 2021
Market Cap	$5.2B	$2.9Best.	$3.4Best.	$1.9Best.	$1.3Best.
Revenue	$1.3B↓14%	$1.5B↓9%	$1.7B↓4%	$1.7B↑64%	$1.1B
Operating Income	$45.7M↓82%	$254.9M↓53%	$541.4M↓32%	$801.4M↑229%	$243.8M
Net Income	$57.0M↓77%	$250.6M↓48%	$478.6M↓25%	$641.3M↑325%	$150.9M
EPS (Diluted)	$1.08↓77%	$4.79↓48%	$9.20↓26%	$12.40↑323%	$2.93
Gross Margin	25.0%↓26%	34.0%↓26%	45.7%↓23%	59.1%↑24%	47.7%
Operating Margin	3.5%↓79%	16.7%↓48%	32.3%↓30%	46.1%↑100%	23.0%
ROE	2.7%↓78%	12.0%↓53%	25.5%↓42%	44.3%↑156%	17.3%
Total Debt	$154.3M	$153.6M	$153.0M↓49%	$302.6M↓11%	$339.8M
Shareholders' Equity	$2.1B↑2%	$2.1B↑12%	$1.9B↑29%	$1.4B↑66%	$872.0M
Current Ratio	3.19↓39%	5.20↓28%	7.24↓5%	7.66↑49%	5.14
Debt / Equity	0.07↓2%	0.07↓10%	0.08↓61%	0.21↓46%	0.39
Operating Cash Flow	$229.2M↓38%	$367.4M↓48%	$701.1M↓17%	$841.9M↑139%	$351.5M
Free Cash Flow	--	--	--	$636.7M↑117%	$293.6M

Scored from 10-K1d ago

Metric	Marks Risk-Aware Value	Akre Three-Legged Stool	Druckenmiller Macro-Enhanced Growth	Spier Value Checklist	Pabrai Dhandho Framework	Munger Quality Focus	Ackman Activist Value	Piotroski F-Score	Greenblatt Magic Formula	Lynch GARP	Buffett Quality Compounder	Graham Defensive Value
Verdict	HOLD	PASS	PASS	BUY	HOLD	BUY	FAIL	PASS	Not ranked	PASS	PASS	FAIL
Score
Analysis
Intrinsic Value				N/A		N/A	N/A			N/A	N/A
Margin of Safety	-2.7%	+68.8%	-2554.1%	N/A	-611.1%	N/A	N/A	-151.3%	-142.6%	N/A	N/A	-218.6%
Data As Of	10-K (2026-08-15)	10-K (2026-08-15)	10-K (2026-08-15)	10-K (2026-08-15)	10-K (2026-08-15)	10-K (2026-08-15)	10-K (2026-08-15)	10-K (2026-08-15)	10-K (2026-08-15)	10-K (2026-08-15)	10-K (2026-08-15)	10-K (2026-08-15)

Where They Agree

Where They Disagree

Profitability
No clean pass — all 11 investors flag at least one profitability criterion
Discount to Intrinsic Value-10.5% (IV=$75.35 vs Price=$83.24)
✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
Positive Net Income Frequency8/10 years positive
✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
Return on Equity13.4% (3-yr avg)
✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)
EPS Growth AccelerationLatest: -77.5%, Prior: -47.9%
✗DruckenmillerAccelerating EPS growth
Show 19 more metrics ▾Show fewer ▴
Margin of SafetyP/E=77.1x, P/B=2.1x
✗SpierP/E < 15 AND P/B < 2.0✗PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15
Operating Income / Revenue3.5%
✗Ackman>= 15%
Net Income / Shareholders Equity2.7%
✗Ackman>= 15%
Net Income / Total Assets2.05%
✓PiotroskiROA > 0
ROA Change YoY9.67% -> 2.05% (delta: -7.62%)
✗PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA
(CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=8.24%, ROA=2.05%
✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
Gross Margin Change YoY34.0% -> 25.0%
✗PiotroskiImproved YoY
EBIT / Enterprise Value1.0%
✗Greenblatt> 10%
Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=1.0%, ROC=None
✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
3-5 Year EPS CAGR-22.1%
✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
ROE2.7%
✗Lynch> 15%
Net Income Positive (10+ years)8/11 years positive
✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years
ROE (5-yr avg)20.4%
✓Buffett> 15% (5-yr avg)
Operating Margin (10-yr trend)3.5% (latest)
✗BuffettStable or rising over 10 years
Free Cash Flow Proxy$641.3M
✓BuffettPositive and growing
Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)0.72
✗BuffettCoV < 0.3
Retained Earnings Effectiveness2.32x
✓Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created
Positive EPS (10 years)8/11 years positive
✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years
EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)-41.7%
✗Graham>= 33% growth
Debt & Leverage
6 of 8 pass — Marks and Buffett object
Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=2.3x, D/EBITDA=0.7x
✗MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x
Debt Levels0.07
✓AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3✓MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5
Total Debt / Shareholders Equity0.07
✓Ackman<= 1.0
LT Debt / Total Assets Change5.93% -> 5.54%
✓PiotroskiDecreased YoY
Show 4 more metrics ▾Show fewer ▴
Total Debt / Equity0.07
✓Lynch< 0.33
Cash - Long-term Debt$145.7M
✓LynchPositive preferred
Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 0.07, IC: 2.3x
✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x
LT Debt vs Net Current AssetsLT Debt $154.3M vs NCA $563.2M
✓GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets
Valuation
2 of 9 pass — Marks, Spier, Pabrai +4 more object
P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/E=77.1x, P/B=2.1x
✗MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0
Discount to Intrinsic Value-10.5% (IV=$75.35 vs Price=$83.24)
✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
Price vs. 200-day MAQualitative
✓DruckenmillerPrice above 200-day moving average
Margin of SafetyP/E=77.1x, P/B=2.1x
✗SpierP/E < 15 AND P/B < 2.0
Show 9 more metrics ▾Show fewer ▴
P/E or FCF YieldP/E=77.1x
✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
Valuation ReasonablenessP/E=77.1x, OE Yield=5.4%
✓MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%
Price / FCF per Share
✗Ackman<= 25
EBIT / Enterprise Value1.0%
✗Greenblatt> 10%
Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=1.0%, ROC=None
✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
P/E / EPS Growth RateP/E 77.1x (growth N/A)
✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
Price / 3-yr avg EPS16.6x
✗Graham<= 15x
Price-to-Book Ratio2.1x
✗Graham<= 1.5x
P/E x P/B35.30
✗Graham<= 22.5
Cash Flow
4 of 6 pass — Pabrai and Ackman object
FCF Positive6/6 years FCF positive
✓MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years
P/E or FCF YieldP/E=77.1x
✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
(OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap
✗Ackman>= 4%
Price / FCF per Share
✗Ackman<= 25
Show 4 more metrics ▾Show fewer ▴
Operating Cash Flow$229.2M
✓PiotroskiCFO > 0
(CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=8.24%, ROA=2.05%
✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
FCF Positive and Growing$636.7M
✓LynchPositive and growing
Free Cash Flow Proxy$641.3M
✓BuffettPositive and growing
Growth
1 of 5 pass — Druckenmiller, Ackman, Lynch +1 more object
Positive Net Income Frequency8/10 years positive
✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
EPS Growth AccelerationLatest: -77.5%, Prior: -47.9%
✗DruckenmillerAccelerating EPS growth
Revenue Growth RateLatest: -14.1%, Prior: -9.0%
✗DruckenmillerRevenue growth accelerating
3yr Median Revenue Growth-9.0%
✗Ackman>= 5%
Show 5 more metrics ▾Show fewer ▴
Positive EPS Growth Frequency2/5 years with positive EPS growth
✗AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years
P/E / EPS Growth RateP/E 77.1x (growth N/A)
✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
3-5 Year EPS CAGR-22.1%
✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
Inventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthInv: 13.7% vs Rev: -14.1%
✗LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth
EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)-41.7%
✗Graham>= 33% growth
Efficiency
2 of 6 pass — Akre, Munger, Piotroski +1 more object
ROIC (high and growing)6/9 years ROIC > 15% (latest: 1.6%)
✓AkreROIC > 15% for 3+ years
Reinvestment Rate x ROIC1.1% (RR=69% x ROIC=1.6%)
✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%
Return on Invested Capital1.6%
✗Munger> 15%
Current Ratio Change YoY5.20 -> 3.19
✗PiotroskiIncreased YoY
Show 5 more metrics ▾Show fewer ▴
Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.59x -> 0.47x
✗PiotroskiImproved YoY
EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)
✗Greenblatt> 25%
ROIC (3-5 yr avg)27.8%
✓Buffett> 10%
ROIC - WACC+17.8%
✓BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)
Current Ratio3.19
✓Graham>= 2.0
Verdicts
Split decision: 5 PASS · 2 HOLD · 2 BUY · 2 FAIL
Overall verdict
•MarksHOLD (5/8)✓AkrePASS (3/7)✓DruckenmillerPASS (4/7)✓SpierBUY (7/8)•PabraiHOLD (6/8)✓MungerBUY (6/7)✗AckmanFAIL (3/9)✓PiotroskiPASS (F-Score 4)•GreenblattNot ranked✓LynchPASS (3/7)✓BuffettPASS (5/9)✗GrahamFAIL (3/9)
Valuation models
Models split on HCC at $98.20 — fair values range $3.70–$314.80
Marks fair value$95.58
✗Marks-2.7% margin vs $98.20
Akre fair value$314.80
✓Akre+68.8% margin vs $98.20
Druckenmiller fair value$3.70
✗Druckenmiller-2554.1% margin vs $98.20
Pabrai fair value$13.81
✗Pabrai-611.1% margin vs $98.20
Show 3 more metrics ▾Show fewer ▴
Piotroski fair value$39.08
✗Piotroski-151.3% margin vs $98.20
Greenblatt fair value$40.47
✗Greenblatt-142.6% margin vs $98.20
Graham fair value$30.82
✗Graham-218.6% margin vs $98.20

Historical Score Timeline

Industry Peers

Similar companies in Coal

HCC vs Peers — Financial Grading

Revenue$1.3BMedian

Net Income$57.0MTop 25%

ROE2.7%Median

D/E0.07Top 25%

Op. Margin3.5%Median

Curr. Ratio3.19Top 25%

Company	Market Cap	Price	Revenue	Net Income	ROE	D/E	Op. Margin	Curr. Ratio	Graham	Buffett	Lynch	Greenblatt	Piotroski
Core Natural Resources, Inc.CNR	$4.8B	$95.94	$4.2B	$153.2M	-4.2%	0.13	-4.4%	1.60	3/9	4/9	2/7	0/3	F-Score 3
ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS LPARLP	$3.3B	$25.42	$2.2B	$311.2M	16.9%	0.24	17.6%	2.10	4/9	7/9	5/7	1/3	F-Score 4
PEABODY ENERGY CORPBTU	$3.1B	$25.48	$3.9B	$42.5M	-1.2%	—	-2.1%	1.85	3/9	4/9	0/7	0/3	F-Score 4
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.AMR	$2.1B	$166.05	$2.1B	$61.7M	-4.0%	0.00	-2.9%	4.47	6/9	4/9	2/7	0/3	F-Score 4
NATURAL RESOURCE PARTNERS LPNRP	$1.4B	$104.56	$207.3M	$136.4M	21.6%	0.07	69.6%	1.85	3/9	5/9	6/7	0/3	F-Score 5
Ramaco Resources, Inc.METCZ	$1.1B	$25.35	$536.6M	$51.4M	-10.6%	0.97	-10.4%	5.46	3/9	4/9	1/7	0/3	F-Score 3
NACCO INDUSTRIES INCNC	$321.8M	$42.64	$277.2M	$17.6M	4.1%	0.23	7.9%	3.09	5/9	2/9	4/7	0/3	F-Score 6
Coronado Global Resources Inc.CODQL	$310.2M	$0.18	$1.9B	$432.1M	-66.5%	1.06	-17.0%	1.55	2/9	2/9	0/7	0/3	F-Score 2