Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.

AMR
About the company

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc., a mining company, produces, processes, and sells met and thermal coal in Virginia and West Virginia. The company provides metallurgical coal products. It operates nineteen active mines and eight active coal preparation and load-out facilities. The company was formerly known as Contura Energy, Inc. and changed its name to Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.

Country: United StatesPrice: $166.00Market Cap: $2.1B

Investment snapshot

31%positive consensus
Scored 37d ago

Positive

5

BUY / PASS

Neutral / negative

2 / 8

NEUTRAL / FAIL

Median fair value

$211.72

+27.5% vs price

Models with upside

4 / 16

Positive margin of safety

Strongest signal

8 of 11 pass — Buffett, Marks and Piotroski object

Key risk

No clean pass — all 8 investors flag at least one growth criterion

Framework analysis

VerdictMeaning
BUYPositive purchase signal: the framework's buy requirements are met.
PASSThe company clears the framework's checklist or screen, but the framework does not produce a buy signal. For valuation frameworks this often means margin of safety is missing, insufficient, or unavailable; some screen-only frameworks have no intrinsic-value BUY state.
NEUTRALNeither a positive nor negative conclusion. It does not mean to hold an existing position.
FAILThe company does not clear the framework's requirements.
RankedRanked strategies do not use PASS: selected cohort is BUY, outside the cohort is FAIL, and unranked is NEUTRAL.
Scored from 10-K37d ago
MetricO'Shaughnessy

Systematic Factor Composite

Lynch

GARP

Buffett

Quality Compounder

Pabrai

Dhandho Framework

Akre

Three-Legged Stool

Schloss

Asset-Value Discipline

Neff

Low-P/E Total Return

Sleep

Scale Economies Shared

Templeton

Global Bargain Hunter

Marks

Risk-Aware Value

Munger

Quality Focus

Ackman

Activist Value

Dreman

Contrarian Value

Piotroski

F-Score

Greenblatt

Magic Formula

Graham

Defensive Value

VerdictFAILFAILPASSFAILFAILNEUTRALFAILBUYPASSFAILPASSFAILFAILPASSFAIL · Rank #1976 (Top 61.6%)NEUTRAL
Score
Analysis
Intrinsic ValueN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Margin of SafetyN/AN/AN/A-19.0%+87.2%N/AN/AN/A+64.0%N/A-1035.4%-1347.3%+43.6%N/A+21.6%N/A
Data As Of10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-24)10-K (2026-08-24)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)

Where It Passes

  • Debt & Leverage73% pass✓ 11✗ 3▾

    8 of 11 pass — Buffett, Marks and Piotroski object

    Total Debt / Equity0.01
    ✓Lynch< 0.33
    Cash - Long-term Debt$362.1M
    ✓LynchPositive preferred
    Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 0.01, IC: -32.9x
    ✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x
    Debt Levels0.01
    ✓AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3✓MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5
    Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity0.01x
    ✓SchlossD/E < 1.00x✓Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✓Dreman< 0.8
    Current Assets / Current Liabilities4.47x
    ✓SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)✓Dreman> 1.5
    Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=-32.9x, D/EBITDA=0.1x
    ✗MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x
    Total Debt / Shareholders Equity0.01
    ✓Ackman<= 1.0
    LT Debt / Total Assets Change0.07% -> 0.17%
    ✗PiotroskiDecreased YoY
    LT Debt vs Net Current AssetsLT Debt $3.9M vs NCA $712.8M
    ✓GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets
  • Valuation models57% pass✓ 4✗ 3▾

    Models split on AMR at $166.00 — fair values range $11.47–$1300.03

    Pabrai fair value$139.48
    ✗Pabrai-19.0% margin vs $166.00
    Akre fair value$1300.03
    ✓Akre+87.2% margin vs $166.00
    Templeton fair value$460.86
    ✓Templeton+64.0% margin vs $166.00
    Munger fair value$14.62
    ✗Munger-1035.4% margin vs $166.00
    Ackman fair value$11.47
    ✗Ackman-1347.3% margin vs $166.00
    Dreman fair value$294.15
    ✓Dreman+43.6% margin vs $166.00
    Greenblatt fair value$211.72
    ✓Greenblatt+21.6% margin vs $166.00

Where It Falls Short

  • Growth0% pass✓ 1✗ 12▾

    No clean pass — all 8 investors flag at least one growth criterion

    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
    ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    3-5 Year EPS CAGR
    ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
    Inventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthInv: 14.0% vs Rev: -28.0%
    ✗LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth
    3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR-2.3% over 3 years
    ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
    Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 32.1% -> 9.6%, operating margin 24.9% -> -2.9%
    ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
    5-year Revenue CAGR8.5%
    ✓SleepCAGR > 7%
    5-Year EPS CAGR-2.3% CAGR over 3 years
    ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
    Positive Net Income Frequency6/9 years positive
    ✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
    3yr Median Revenue Growth-15.4%
    ✗Ackman>= 5%
    Positive EPS Growth Frequency2/5 years with positive EPS growth
    ✗AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years
    EPS Growth Direction
    ✗DremanPositive over recent years
    EPS CAGR
    ✗Dreman> 5% annualized
    EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)
    ✗Graham>= 33% growth
  • Profitability7% pass✓ 5✗ 26▾

    14 of 15 flag AMR's profitability — Oshaughnessy, Lynch, Buffett +11 more

    Net income / market capitalization-2.90%; #3623/6251 (top 58.0%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
    ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    3-5 Year EPS CAGR
    ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
    ROE-4.0%
    ✗Lynch> 15%
    Net Income Positive (10+ years)6/10 years positive
    ✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years
    ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)41.5%
    ✓Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)
    Operating Margin (10-yr trend)-2.9% (latest)
    ✓BuffettStable or rising over 10 years
    Free Cash Flow Proxy$-14.3M
    ✗BuffettPositive and growing
    Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)
    ✗BuffettCoV < 0.3
    Retained Earnings Effectiveness
    ✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created
    Margin of SafetyP/B=1.4x
    ✓PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15
    Return on Equity17.8% (3-yr avg)
    ✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)
    Positive Diluted-EPS Years6/9 years positive
    ✗Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
    3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR-2.3% over 3 years
    ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
    Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 32.1% -> 9.6%, operating margin 24.9% -> -2.9%
    ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
    5-Year EPS CAGR-2.3% CAGR over 3 years
    ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
    Operating Margin Trend24.9% (2023) -> -2.9% (2025)
    ✗TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years
    Discount to Intrinsic Value43.6% (IV=$294.15 vs Price=$166.00)
    ✓Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
    Positive Net Income Frequency6/9 years positive
    ✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
    Operating Income / Revenue-2.9%
    ✗Ackman>= 15%
    Net Income / Shareholders Equity-4.0%
    ✗Ackman>= 15%
    Pre-Tax Income / Revenue-4.1%
    ✗Dreman>= 8%
    Net Income / Shareholders' Equity-4.0%
    ✗Dreman> 12%
    Net Income / Total Assets-2.70%
    ✗PiotroskiROA > 0
    ROA Change YoY7.69% -> -2.70% (delta: -10.40%)
    ✗PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA
    (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=6.35%, ROA=-2.70%
    ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
    Gross Margin Change YoY17.1% -> 9.6%
    ✗PiotroskiImproved YoY
    EBIT / Enterprise Value-3.5%
    ✗Greenblatt> 10%
    Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=-3.5%, ROC=-6.3%
    ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
    Positive EPS (10 years)6/10 years positive
    ✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years
    EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)
    ✗Graham>= 33% growth
  • Valuation17% pass✓ 7✗ 19▾

    10 of 12 flag AMR's valuation — Oshaughnessy, Lynch, Pabrai +7 more

    Price / Book Value per Share1.38x
    ✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)✓Templeton< 1.5x✗Dreman< 1.2x
    Revenue / market capitalization+1.0017; #1641/5203 (top 31.5%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Net income / market capitalization-2.90%; #3623/6251 (top 58.0%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization+0.84%; #2400/4487 (top 53.5%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date-19.13%; #4524/6203 (top 72.9%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
    ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    P/E or FCF YieldFCF Yield=0.8%
    ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
    Price / Tangible Book Value per Share1.42x
    ✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)
    Book Value per Share Change+1003.7%
    ✓SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)
    Price / Diluted EPS
    ✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)
    (EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E
    ✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)
    Price / EPS
    ✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)✗Dreman< 12x
    Price vs. Trailing Low148% of trailing low ($112.04)
    ✗Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)
    P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/B=1.4x
    ✓MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0
    Discount to Intrinsic Value43.6% (IV=$294.15 vs Price=$166.00)
    ✓Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
    Valuation ReasonablenessOE Yield=-0.7%
    ✗MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%
    Price / FCF per Share119.6x
    ✗Ackman<= 25
    Price / (CFO / Shares)14.7x
    ✗Dreman< 8x
    EBIT / Enterprise Value-3.5%
    ✗Greenblatt> 10%
    Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=-3.5%, ROC=-6.3%
    ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
    Price / 3-yr avg EPS8.5x
    ✓Graham<= 15x
    Price-to-Book Ratio1.4x
    ✓Graham<= 1.5x
    P/E x P/B11.60
    ✓Graham<= 22.5
  • Verdicts36% pass✓ 5✗ 9▾

    Split decision: 8 FAIL · 4 PASS · 2 NEUTRAL · 1 BUY

    Overall verdict
    ✗OshaughnessyFAIL (Rank #861/953 (Top 90.3%))✗LynchFAIL (2/7)✓BuffettPASS (4/9)✗PabraiFAIL (1/3)✗AkreFAIL (2/6)•SchlossNEUTRAL (4/7)✗NeffFAIL (3/6)✓SleepBUY (5/6)✓TempletonPASS (4/8)✗MarksFAIL (3/5)✓MungerPASS (2/4)✗AckmanFAIL (3/9)✗DremanFAIL (3/11)✓PiotroskiPASS (F-Score 4)✗GreenblattRank #1976•GrahamNEUTRAL (6/9)
  • Cash Flow40% pass✓ 5✗ 7▾

    6 of 10 flag AMR's cash flow — Oshaughnessy, Lynch, Buffett +3 more

    (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization+0.84%; #2400/4487 (top 53.5%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    FCF Positive and Growing$17.8M
    ✗LynchPositive and growing
    Free Cash Flow Proxy$-14.3M
    ✗BuffettPositive and growing
    P/E or FCF YieldFCF Yield=0.8%
    ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
    Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures$17.8M
    ✓Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)
    Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency9/9 years positive
    ✓SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years
    FCF Positive8/9 years FCF positive
    ✓MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years
    (OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap0.8%
    ✗Ackman>= 4%
    Price / FCF per Share119.6x
    ✗Ackman<= 25
    Price / (CFO / Shares)14.7x
    ✗Dreman< 8x
    Operating Cash Flow$144.9M
    ✓PiotroskiCFO > 0
    (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=6.35%, ROA=-2.70%
    ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
  • Efficiency50% pass✓ 6✗ 5▾

    4 of 8 pass — Akre, Munger, Piotroski +1 more object

    ROIC (3-5 yr avg)40.8%
    ✓Buffett> 10%
    ROIC - WACC+30.8%
    ✓BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)
    ROIC (high and growing)FY2023: ROIC=43.0%; FY2024: ROIC=10.9%; FY2025: ROIC=-3.1%
    ✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each
    Reinvestment Rate x ROICN/A (non-positive net income)
    ✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%
    ROIC (5-year)3/5 years above 12% (latest -3.1%)
    ✓SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years
    Return on Invested Capital-3.1%
    ✗Munger> 15%
    Current Assets / Current Liabilities4.47
    ✓Dreman> 1.5
    Current Ratio Change YoY4.13 -> 4.47
    ✓PiotroskiIncreased YoY
    Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY1.21x -> 0.93x
    ✗PiotroskiImproved YoY
    EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)-6.3%
    ✗Greenblatt> 25%
    Current Ratio4.47
    ✓Graham>= 2.0

Business & financials

Company Profile

Industry: Coal
SIC Sector: Coal Mining
Size: Mid Cap($2.1B)
Revenue: $2.1B-28.0% YoY
Net Income: $61.7M-132.9% YoY

Financial Snapshot

Operating Margin-2.9%
Return on Equity-4.0%
Debt / Equity0.01
Current Ratio4.47
EPS (Diluted)$-4.75−71.0% 1y
Shares Retired1.6% / 1.0% 2y

Similar Companies

HCCWARRIOR MET COAL, INC.
$4.8B
CNRCore Natural Resources, Inc.
$4.4B
ARLPALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS LP
$3.1B
BTUPEABODY ENERGY CORP
$3.0B

Shareholder Return

Fiscal 2025

Retired 1.6% of shares last year, 1.0% over two.

Buybacks
—
Dividends
$415.0K

What drove EPS

A buyback raises earnings per share without the company earning more. This splits each year's change into the two.

FY22
419.5% = 401.6% + 3.6%
FY23
−38.0% = −50.2% + 24.4%
FY24
−71.0% = −74.0% + 11.5%
Earnings Fewer shares More shares

The two parts do not sum exactly to the total — the difference is the cross-term, plus preferred capital where the company has any. It is left visible rather than distributed into the other two.

Share count is the denominator the filer used for diluted EPS, recovered as net income ÷ EPS — not the balance-sheet count, which is a point-in-time figure and would put the timing difference into this split. Years with a loss are omitted: a smaller share count makes a loss per share larger, so the decomposition inverts.

Company Financials

Annual data (10-K) · Last 5 years

MetricFY 2025FY 2024FY 2023FY 2022FY 2021
Market Cap$2.1B$2.4Best.$5.2Best.$2.5Best.$1.1Best.
Revenue$2.1B↓28%$3.0B↓15%$3.5B↓15%$4.1B↑82%$2.3B
Operating Income-$61.4M↓127%$227.9M↓74%$863.1M↓45%$1.6B↑340%$359.2M
Net Income-$61.7M↓133%$187.6M↓74%$722.0M↓50%$1.4B↑402%$288.8M
EPS (Diluted)$-4.75↓133%$14.28↓71%$49.30↓38%$79.49↑420%$15.30
Gross Margin9.6%↓44%17.1%↓47%32.1%↓27%44.3%↑72%25.7%
Operating Margin-2.9%↓137%7.7%↓69%24.9%↓35%38.5%↑142%15.9%
ROE-4.0%↓135%11.4%↓75%45.9%↓55%101.3%↑92%52.8%
Total Debt$13.4M↑132%$5.8M↓44%$10.4M↓5%$11.0M↓98%$448.6M
Shareholders' Equity$1.5B↓6%$1.6B↑5%$1.6B↑10%$1.4B↑161%$546.9M
Current Ratio4.47↑8%4.13↑22%3.38↑22%2.77↑10%2.53
Debt / Equity0.01↑148%0.00↓47%0.01↓14%0.01↓99%0.82
Operating Cash Flow$144.9M↓75%$579.9M↓32%$851.2M↓43%$1.5B↑748%$174.9M
Free Cash Flow$17.8M↓95%$381.1M↓37%$605.8M↓54%$1.3B↑1340%$91.6M

Score history

Historical Score Timeline

Industry peers

Industry Peers

Similar companies in Coal

AMR vs Peers — Financial Grading

Revenue$2.1BMedian
Net Income$61.7MBottom 25%
ROE-4.0%Bottom 25%
D/E0.01Top 25%
Op. Margin-2.9%Median
Curr. Ratio4.47Top 25%
CompanyMarket CapPriceRevenueNet IncomeROED/EOp. MarginCurr. RatioGrahamBuffettLynchGreenblattPiotroskiDreman
WARRIOR MET COAL, INC.HCC$4.8B$91.75$1.3B$57.0M2.7%0.073.5%3.193/94/93/70/3F-Score 43/11
Core Natural Resources, Inc.CNR$4.4B$86.50$4.2B$153.2M-4.2%0.11-4.4%1.603/93/92/70/3F-Score 34/11
ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS LPARLP$3.1B$24.38$2.2B$311.2M16.9%0.2417.6%2.104/96/95/71/3F-Score 48/11
PEABODY ENERGY CORPBTU$3.0B$24.37$3.9B$42.5M-1.2%0.10-2.1%1.853/93/91/70/3F-Score 44/11
NATURAL RESOURCE PARTNERS LPNRP$1.5B$109.71$207.3M$136.4M21.6%0.0569.6%1.854/94/96/70/3F-Score 57/11
Ramaco Resources, Inc.METC$372.5M$8.38$536.6M$51.4M-10.6%0.02-10.4%5.463/92/92/70/3F-Score 32/11
NACCO INDUSTRIES INCNC$285.1M$37.78$277.2M$17.6M4.1%0.207.9%3.095/91/94/70/3F-Score 64/11
American Resources CorpAREC$195.8M$1.83$0.00$55.4M58.4%0.01—2.192/90/93/70/3F-Score 34/11