PEABODY ENERGY CORP

BTU
About the company

Peabody Energy Corporation engages in the production of metallurgical and thermal coal. It operates through Seaborne Thermal, Seaborne Metallurgical, Powder River Basin, and Other U.S. Thermal segments. The company operates mines in New South Wales and Queensland in Australia and in Alabama and Wyoming in the United States; mining, preparation, and sale of thermal coal, sold primarily to electric utilities; surface mining extraction processes, coal with a lower sulfur content, and Btu; and mining sub-bituminous coal deposits.

Country: United StatesPrice: $24.37Market Cap: $3.0B

Investment snapshot

13%positive consensus
Scored 37d ago

Positive

2

BUY / PASS

Neutral / negative

1 / 12

NEUTRAL / FAIL

Median fair value

$45.51

+86.7% vs price

Models with upside

3 / 16

Positive margin of safety

Strongest signal

Models split on BTU at $24.37 — fair values range $5.75–$60.47

Key risk

No clean pass — all 12 investors flag at least one valuation criterion

Framework analysis

VerdictMeaning
BUYPositive purchase signal: the framework's buy requirements are met.
PASSThe company clears the framework's checklist or screen, but the framework does not produce a buy signal. For valuation frameworks this often means margin of safety is missing, insufficient, or unavailable; some screen-only frameworks have no intrinsic-value BUY state.
NEUTRALNeither a positive nor negative conclusion. It does not mean to hold an existing position.
FAILThe company does not clear the framework's requirements.
RankedRanked strategies do not use PASS: selected cohort is BUY, outside the cohort is FAIL, and unranked is NEUTRAL.
Scored from 10-K37d ago
MetricO'Shaughnessy

Systematic Factor Composite

Lynch

GARP

Buffett

Quality Compounder

Pabrai

Dhandho Framework

Akre

Three-Legged Stool

Schloss

Asset-Value Discipline

Neff

Low-P/E Total Return

Sleep

Scale Economies Shared

Templeton

Global Bargain Hunter

Marks

Risk-Aware Value

Munger

Quality Focus

Ackman

Activist Value

Dreman

Contrarian Value

Piotroski

F-Score

Greenblatt

Magic Formula

Graham

Defensive Value

VerdictFAILFAILFAILFAILFAILNEUTRALFAILFAILFAILFAILPASSFAILFAILPASSFAIL · Rank #1942 (Top 60.5%)FAIL
Score
Analysis
Intrinsic ValueN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Margin of SafetyN/AN/AN/A-323.8%+59.3%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+59.7%N/AN/AN/A+21.7%N/A
Data As Of10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-25)10-K (2026-08-24)10-K (2026-08-24)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)10-K (2026-08-23)

Where It Passes

  • Valuation models75% pass✓ 3✗ 1▾

    Models split on BTU at $24.37 — fair values range $5.75–$60.47

    Pabrai fair value$5.75
    ✗Pabrai-323.8% margin vs $24.37
    Akre fair value$59.88
    ✓Akre+59.3% margin vs $24.37
    Munger fair value$60.47
    ✓Munger+59.7% margin vs $24.37
    Greenblatt fair value$31.13
    ✓Greenblatt+21.7% margin vs $24.37
  • Debt & Leverage64% pass✓ 10✗ 4▾

    7 of 11 pass — Lynch, Buffett, Marks +1 more object

    Total Debt / Equity0.10
    ✓Lynch< 0.33
    Cash - Long-term Debt
    ✗LynchPositive preferred
    Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 0.10, IC: -1.8x
    ✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x
    Debt Levels0.10
    ✓AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3✓MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5
    Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity0.10x
    ✓SchlossD/E < 1.00x✓Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✓Dreman< 0.8
    Current Assets / Current Liabilities1.85x
    ✓SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)✓Dreman> 1.5
    Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=-1.8x, D/EBITDA=1.1x
    ✗MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x
    Total Debt / Shareholders Equity0.10
    ✓Ackman<= 1.0
    LT Debt / Total Assets Change0.00% -> 0.00%
    ✓PiotroskiDecreased YoY
    LT Debt vs Net Current Assets
    ✗GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets

Where It Falls Short

  • Valuation0% pass✓ 5✗ 21▾

    No clean pass — all 12 investors flag at least one valuation criterion

    Price / Book Value per Share0.84x
    ✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)✓Templeton< 1.5x✓Dreman< 1.2x
    Revenue / market capitalization+1.3009; #1378/5203 (top 26.5%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Net income / market capitalization-1.43%; #3407/6251 (top 54.5%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization-2.62%; #2849/4487 (top 63.5%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date-26.04%; #4850/6203 (top 78.2%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
    ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    P/E or FCF YieldFCF Yield=-2.6%
    ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
    Price / Tangible Book Value per Share0.84x
    ✓SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)
    Book Value per Share Change
    ✗SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)
    Price / Diluted EPS
    ✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)
    (EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E
    ✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)
    Price / EPS
    ✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)✗Dreman< 12x
    Price vs. Trailing Low197% of trailing low ($12.34)
    ✗Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)
    P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/B=0.8x
    ✓MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0
    Discount to Intrinsic Value
    ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
    Valuation ReasonablenessOE Yield=-2.3%
    ✗MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%
    Price / FCF per ShareN/A (negative FCF)
    ✗Ackman<= 25
    Price / (CFO / Shares)8.9x
    ✗Dreman< 8x
    EBIT / Enterprise Value-2.9%
    ✗Greenblatt> 10%
    Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=-2.9%, ROC=-2.4%
    ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
    Price / 3-yr avg EPS
    ✗Graham<= 15x
    Price-to-Book Ratio0.8x
    ✓Graham<= 1.5x
    P/E x P/B
    ✗Graham<= 22.5
  • Profitability7% pass✓ 4✗ 27▾

    14 of 15 flag BTU's profitability — Oshaughnessy, Lynch, Buffett +11 more

    Net income / market capitalization-1.43%; #3407/6251 (top 54.5%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
    ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    3-5 Year EPS CAGR
    ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
    ROE-1.2%
    ✗Lynch> 15%
    Net Income Positive (10+ years)17/26 years positive
    ✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years
    ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)18.9%
    ✓Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)
    Operating Margin (10-yr trend)-2.1% (latest)
    ✗BuffettStable or rising over 10 years
    Free Cash Flow Proxy$-69.4M
    ✗BuffettPositive and growing
    Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)
    ✗BuffettCoV < 0.3
    Retained Earnings Effectiveness
    ✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created
    Margin of SafetyP/B=0.8x
    ✓PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15
    Return on Equity10.9% (3-yr avg)
    ✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)
    Positive Diluted-EPS Years5/9 years positive
    ✗Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
    3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR
    ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
    Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendrevenue flat/down, operating margin 21.7% -> -2.1%
    ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
    5-Year EPS CAGR
    ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
    Operating Margin Trend21.7% (2023) -> -2.1% (2025)
    ✗TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years
    Discount to Intrinsic Value
    ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
    Positive Net Income Frequency17/25 years positive
    ✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
    Operating Income / Revenue-2.1%
    ✗Ackman>= 15%
    Net Income / Shareholders Equity-1.2%
    ✗Ackman>= 15%
    Pre-Tax Income / Revenue-0.9%
    ✗Dreman>= 8%
    Net Income / Shareholders' Equity-1.2%
    ✗Dreman> 12%
    Net Income / Total Assets-0.73%
    ✗PiotroskiROA > 0
    ROA Change YoY6.78% -> -0.73% (delta: -7.51%)
    ✗PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA
    (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=5.75%, ROA=-0.73%
    ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
    Gross Margin Change YoY
    ✗PiotroskiImproved YoY
    EBIT / Enterprise Value-2.9%
    ✗Greenblatt> 10%
    Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=-2.9%, ROC=-2.4%
    ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
    Positive EPS (10 years)14/26 years positive
    ✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years
    EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)
    ✗Graham>= 33% growth
  • Growth13% pass✓ 1✗ 12▾

    7 of 8 flag BTU's growth — Lynch, Neff, Sleep +4 more

    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
    ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    3-5 Year EPS CAGR
    ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
    Inventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthInv: -2.6% vs Rev: -8.9%
    ✗LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth
    3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR
    ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
    Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendrevenue flat/down, operating margin 21.7% -> -2.1%
    ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
    5-year Revenue CAGR6.0%
    ✗SleepCAGR > 7%
    5-Year EPS CAGR
    ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
    Positive Net Income Frequency17/25 years positive
    ✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
    3yr Median Revenue Growth-8.9%
    ✗Ackman>= 5%
    Positive EPS Growth Frequency
    ✗AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years
    EPS Growth Direction
    ✗DremanPositive over recent years
    EPS CAGR
    ✗Dreman> 5% annualized
    EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)
    ✗Graham>= 33% growth
  • Verdicts13% pass✓ 2✗ 13▾

    Split decision: 12 FAIL · 2 PASS · 1 NEUTRAL

    Overall verdict
    ✗OshaughnessyFAIL (Rank #430/953 (Top 45.1%))✗LynchFAIL (1/7)✗BuffettFAIL (3/9)✗PabraiFAIL (1/3)✗AkreFAIL (1/6)•SchlossNEUTRAL (4/7)✗NeffFAIL (2/6)✗SleepFAIL (2/6)✗TempletonFAIL (3/8)✗MarksFAIL (3/5)✓MungerPASS (2/4)✗AckmanFAIL (3/9)✗DremanFAIL (4/11)✓PiotroskiPASS (F-Score 4)✗GreenblattRank #1942✗GrahamFAIL (3/9)
  • Efficiency25% pass✓ 3✗ 8▾

    6 of 8 flag BTU's efficiency — Akre, Sleep, Munger +3 more

    ROIC (3-5 yr avg)20.8%
    ✓Buffett> 10%
    ROIC - WACC+10.8%
    ✓BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)
    ROIC (high and growing)FY2023: ROIC=21.9%; FY2024: ROIC=8.8%; FY2025: ROIC=-1.6%
    ✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each
    Reinvestment Rate x ROICN/A (non-positive net income)
    ✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%
    ROIC (5-year)2/5 years above 12% (latest -1.6%)
    ✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years
    Return on Invested Capital-1.6%
    ✗Munger> 15%
    Current Assets / Current Liabilities1.85
    ✓Dreman> 1.5
    Current Ratio Change YoY2.15 -> 1.85
    ✗PiotroskiIncreased YoY
    Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.71x -> 0.66x
    ✗PiotroskiImproved YoY
    EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)-2.4%
    ✗Greenblatt> 25%
    Current Ratio1.85
    ✗Graham>= 2.0
  • Cash Flow30% pass✓ 4✗ 8▾

    7 of 10 flag BTU's cash flow — Oshaughnessy, Lynch, Buffett +4 more

    (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization-2.62%; #2849/4487 (top 63.5%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    FCF Positive and Growing$-77.7M
    ✗LynchPositive and growing
    Free Cash Flow Proxy$-69.4M
    ✗BuffettPositive and growing
    P/E or FCF YieldFCF Yield=-2.6%
    ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
    Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures$-77.7M
    ✗Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)
    Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency21/24 years positive
    ✓SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years
    FCF Positive18/24 years FCF positive
    ✓MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years
    (OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap-2.6%
    ✗Ackman>= 4%
    Price / FCF per ShareN/A (negative FCF)
    ✗Ackman<= 25
    Price / (CFO / Shares)8.9x
    ✗Dreman< 8x
    Operating Cash Flow$333.7M
    ✓PiotroskiCFO > 0
    (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=5.75%, ROA=-0.73%
    ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA

Business & financials

Company Profile

Industry: Coal
SIC Sector: Coal Mining
Size: Mid Cap($3.0B)
Revenue: $3.9B-8.9% YoY
Net Income: $42.5M-110.5% YoY

Financial Snapshot

Operating Margin-2.1%
Return on Equity-1.2%
Debt / Equity0.10
Current Ratio1.85
EPS (Diluted)$-0.43−46.0% 1y
Buybacks (1y)$0
Buybacks (2y)$183.1M
Shares Retired14.2% / 5.4% 2y

Similar Companies

HCCWARRIOR MET COAL, INC.
$4.8B
CNRCore Natural Resources, Inc.
$4.4B
ARLPALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS LP
$3.1B
AMRAlpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.
$2.1B

Shareholder Return

Fiscal 2025

Retired 14.2% of shares last year, 5.4% over two.

Buybacks
$0
Dividends
$36.5M

The share count fell without reported repurchases, so this is not a buyback — the two figures are independent and are not reconciled.

What drove EPS

A buyback raises earnings per share without the company earning more. This splits each year's change into the two.

FY22
158.1% = 255.2% + −27.3%
FY23
−39.8% = −38.2% + −2.7%
FY24
−46.0% = −50.5% + 9.2%
Earnings Fewer shares More shares

The two parts do not sum exactly to the total — the difference is the cross-term, plus preferred capital where the company has any. It is left visible rather than distributed into the other two.

Share count is the denominator the filer used for diluted EPS, recovered as net income ÷ EPS — not the balance-sheet count, which is a point-in-time figure and would put the timing difference into this split. Years with a loss are omitted: a smaller share count makes a loss per share larger, so the decomposition inverts.

Company Financials

Annual data (10-K) · Last 5 years

MetricFY 2025FY 2024FY 2023FY 2022FY 2021
Market Cap$3.0B$2.5Best.$3.3Best.$3.9Best.$1.4Best.
Revenue$3.9B↓9%$4.2B↓14%$4.9B↓1%$5.0B↑50%$3.3B
Operating Income-$80.1M↓118%$445.3M↓59%$1.1B↓22%$1.4B↑220%$432.2M
Net Income-$42.5M↓111%$403.5M↓51%$815.6M↓38%$1.3B↑255%$371.4M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.43↓116%$2.70↓46%$5.00↓40%$8.31↑158%$3.22
Gross Margin—————
Operating Margin-2.1%↓120%10.5%↓52%21.7%↓22%27.7%↑113%13.0%
ROE-1.2%↓111%11.1%↓52%23.0%↓44%40.8%↑94%21.1%
Total Debt$336.4M↓3%$348.1M↑4%$334.2M$333.8M↓71%$1.1B
Shareholders' Equity$3.5B↓3%$3.7B↑3%$3.5B↑10%$3.2B↑83%$1.8B
Current Ratio1.85↓14%2.15↑4%2.06↓20%2.58↑34%1.93
Debt / Equity0.100.10↑1%0.09↓9%0.10↓84%0.65
Operating Cash Flow$333.7M↓45%$606.5M↓41%$1.0B↓12%$1.2B↑179%$420.0M
Free Cash Flow-$77.7M↓138%$205.2M↓70%$687.2M↓28%$952.1M↑302%$236.9M

Score history

Historical Score Timeline

Industry peers

Industry Peers

Similar companies in Coal

BTU vs Peers — Financial Grading

Revenue$3.9BTop 25%
Net Income$42.5MMedian
ROE-1.2%Median
D/E0.10Median
Op. Margin-2.1%Median
Curr. Ratio1.85Bottom 25%
CompanyMarket CapPriceRevenueNet IncomeROED/EOp. MarginCurr. RatioGrahamBuffettLynchGreenblattPiotroskiDreman
WARRIOR MET COAL, INC.HCC$4.8B$91.75$1.3B$57.0M2.7%0.073.5%3.193/94/93/70/3F-Score 43/11
Core Natural Resources, Inc.CNR$4.4B$86.50$4.2B$153.2M-4.2%0.11-4.4%1.603/93/92/70/3F-Score 34/11
ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS LPARLP$3.1B$24.38$2.2B$311.2M16.9%0.2417.6%2.104/96/95/71/3F-Score 48/11
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.AMR$2.1B$166.00$2.1B$61.7M-4.0%0.01-2.9%4.476/94/92/70/3F-Score 43/11
NATURAL RESOURCE PARTNERS LPNRP$1.5B$109.71$207.3M$136.4M21.6%0.0569.6%1.854/94/96/70/3F-Score 57/11
Ramaco Resources, Inc.METC$372.5M$8.38$536.6M$51.4M-10.6%0.02-10.4%5.463/92/92/70/3F-Score 32/11
NACCO INDUSTRIES INCNC$285.1M$37.78$277.2M$17.6M4.1%0.207.9%3.095/91/94/70/3F-Score 64/11
American Resources CorpAREC$195.8M$1.83$0.00$55.4M58.4%0.01—2.192/90/93/70/3F-Score 34/11